Wasilków vs Wigry Suwałki: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki are clear favorites: they sit 4th in the table versus Wasilków in 17th and have 18 wins this season compared to the home side’s 7. Offensively Wigry have scored 56 goals this season versus the hosts’ 38, while the visitors’ defense is significantly better — 39 goals conceded for Wigry versus 71 for Wasilków. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 9 goals, but Wigry have conceded only 4 and average 2.0 points per game, whereas Wasilków have conceded 11 and average 1.4 points per game, indicating greater stability from the visitors. The away side averages 11 shots per game with 3.92 on target and have away xG 1.30, while the hosts at home average 8.38 shots with 3.25 on target and xG 1.24; despite higher finishing efficiency for the hosts (13% vs 10%), Wigry create more chances. Additionally Wasilków concede on average 2.07 goals per home game and have 40% of matches without a goal scored, compared to Wigry conceding 1.6 goals away and having 33% of away matches goalless for the opposition, therefore I forecast a win for the visitors.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: 56% for Wasilków and 60% for Wigry, while the league average BTTS is 62%, providing a strong baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches both teams also show 60% BTTS; Wasilków scored 9 and conceded 11 in those five games (avg 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded), while Wigry scored 9 and conceded 4 (1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded), indicating the home side has been more exposed recently. xG metrics show Wasilków with xG 1.76 versus xG against Wigry 1.82, and Wigry with xG 1.30 versus xG against Wasilków 1.47; additionally Wigry have scored 56 goals this season while Wasilków have conceded 71, which increases the likelihood of an away goal. On the other hand Wasilków maintain 44% clean sheets this season, which limits BTTS certainty, but the advantage in shots on target 5.44 (home) vs 3.92 (away) and percentages of matches over 2.5 goals 63% and 67% and the combined over 2.5 & BTTS rates 50% and 53% still support both teams scoring. Considering these numbers I assign 70% to Yes (BTTS) and 30% to No, therefore I pick Yes.

I estimate total expected goals at about 3.18: Wasilków ~1.79 xG (1.76 xG in attack vs 1.82 xG conceded by Wigry), and Wigry Suwałki ~1.39 xG (1.30 xG in attack vs 1.47 xG conceded by Wasilków). With this mean, a Poisson distribution yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈83%, Over 2.5 ≈62% and Over 3.5 ≈39%. Seasonal stats confirm a propensity for goals: over 1.5 in 81% of Wasilków’s matches and 80% for Wigry, and over 2.5 in 63% and 67% respectively; the league average is 3.34 goals per game. Wasilków averages 5.44 shots on target with a 17% conversion rate versus Wigry’s 3.92 SOT at 10% conversion, and Wasilków have had 100% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches, which strengthens the chance of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest signal is to play Over at the 1.5 line (83% chance), while Over 2.5 also holds an edge (~62%).

Wasilków has a clear advantage in first halves: they were leading at the break in 10 matches, representing 63% of their games, whereas Wigry were leading at the break in only 33% of matches. The hosts win 69% of their home games and on the season average score 2.19 goals per match versus Wigry’s 1.40, reflecting the home-side advantage. Before the break Wasilków average 1.13 goals scored and concede only 0.31, with an xG of 1.76 versus the visitors’ 1.30 xG; additionally, 5.44 shots on target versus 3.92 and a conversion rate of 17% versus 10% demonstrate greater offensive efficiency for the hosts. In second halves the hosts also dominate — they have 28 points and average 1.75 points in second halves, while Wigry have 16 points and average 1.07 points, so maintaining a lead to full-time is more likely. For these reasons the most credible scenario is Wasilków leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), which justifies the highest assigned probability of 43%.