Wda Świecie vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Season-long metrics favor Lech II: the visitors have scored 48 goals this season versus Wda Świecie’s 29, and Lech’s away goals per game is 2.09 versus 1.50 for the hosts. Lech also shows higher shot efficiency — on average 6.5 shots on target per match versus 5.09, with a conversion rate of 19% vs 14%, and 56% possession away, indicating more goal-scoring opportunities. Wda, however, presents better form over the last 5 matches: 6 goals scored, a record of 2 wins and 3 draws (1.8 points per match) and only 3 goals conceded in that span, while Lech has 5 goals and 1.0 point per match in the last 5. The expected goals (xG) analysis slightly favors Lech: average xG for the visitors is 1.66 versus Wda’s 1.52, and xG against 1.46 vs 1.76 for the hosts, meaning Lech creates and converts more high-value chances. In summary — considering the seasonal attacking advantage (48 vs 29), better conversion and game control, I assign higher chances to the visitors to win; probability distribution: home 30%, draw 20%, away 50%.

The BTTS "Yes" scenario is stronger, as both teams display high seasonal BTTS rates: Wda Świecie 77% and Lech Poznań II 64%, versus the league average of 51%. Both sides regularly score and concede — season goal averages are 1.92 (Wda) and 2.09 (Lech Poznań II), with goals conceded averages of 1.23 and 1.55, which increases the likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet. xG data confirms offensive activity: xG for 1.78 vs 1.66, and xG against 1.23 vs 1.46, meaning both teams create and allow scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%, while clean sheets are rare: 15% for Wda Świecie and 18% for Lech Poznań II, lowering the probability of a No Goal game. Considering 77% vs 64% BTTS, 62–64% of matches over 2.5 goals and Over2.5+BTTS at 54% and 64%, I assess the probability of BTTS "Yes" at around 80%.

I project 1.62 goals for Wda Świecie and 1.45 for Lech II (total 3.07), based on home xG 1.78 and away xG 1.66 and on opponents’ average xG conceded (Lech II xG_against 1.46, Wda xG_against 1.23). Season scoring averages are 1.92 for Wda and 2.09 for Lech II, and 62% of Wda’s matches and 64% of Lech II’s matches finish Over 2.5 goals, confirming a tendency toward higher-scoring games. Additionally, BTTS occurs in 77% of Wda’s matches and 64% of Lech II’s matches; Lech also shows higher shot conversion at 19% with 6.5 shots on target, increasing their efficiency in the box. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — Wda have 100% of matches over 1.5, Lech II 73%, so I recommend the over at the 1.5 line (high confidence ~92%). Over 2.5 also looks favorable (≈68%) given the expected 3.07 goals, while Over 3.5 is less certain (≈36%).

First-half statistics indicate an advantage for the visitors: hosts led at the break in 33% of matches, while visitors held a lead at half-time in 42% of fixtures. Average first-half goals are similar (0.83 for hosts vs. 0.82 for visitors), but in second halves the visitors show greater activity — in the last five matches visitors averaged 1.75 goals in second halves compared to 0.33 for hosts. Additionally, visitors’ xG is 1.66 versus hosts’ xG against of 1.23, with more shots on target (6.5 vs. 4.8) and higher conversion rate (19% vs. 12%), providing an edge in chance creation and finishing. Based on this, the model assigns the highest probability to the 2/2 HT/FT scenario (visitors leading at the break and winning) at 23%, while the 1/1 scenario is second highest at 20%. The high percentage of matches in which both teams score (77% for hosts vs. 64% for visitors) means that despite selecting 2/2 one should expect goals from both sides and potential turnaround volatility in the second half.