Wda Świecie vs Polonia Środa: match statistics

Polonia Środa remain unbeaten this season (7 wins and 3 draws), while Wda Świecie have a record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Away from home, the visitors average 2.8 goals scored from an xG of 2.23, while the hosts average 2.25 goals at home from an xG of 1.43, pointing to Polonia’s edge in chance creation. The visitors also look slightly more solid defensively: they concede an average of 1.4 goals away and allow an xG of 1.16, compared with Wda’s 1.5 goals conceded and xG of 1.38 at home. Polonia have scored 13 goals but conceded 11 in their last five matches, so despite their advantage, a close contest cannot be ruled out. Wda have won 3 of their 4 home matches so far and scored in each of them, but the visitors’ greater chance-creating output tips the balance in favour of an away win.

BTTS landed in 80% of Wda Świecie’s matches and 60% of Polonia Środa’s, while the figure stood at 80% for both teams across their last five matches. Wda average 3.0 goals at home, and Polonia 2.8 away, giving both sides strong reasons to find the net. This is backed up by average xG figures of 1.72 and 2.23 respectively, with the hosts conceding an average of 1.8 goals and the visitors 1.4. However, Polonia have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, further boosting Wda’s chances of scoring. Although Polonia kept a clean sheet in 40% of their away matches, the overall data more clearly points to both teams scoring.

Wda matches average 4.8 goals, while Polonia matches average 4.2; both teams have gone Over 1.5 goals in 80% of their matches. The home side score an average of 3.0 goals and concede 1.8, while the visitors score 2.8 and concede 1.4. Their attacking potential is reflected in xG figures of 1.72 for Wda and 2.23 for Polonia, although the hosts have averaged a lower 1.4 goals scored across their last five matches. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest backing in the data: with 3.9 goals projected, it remains clearly safer than the Over 2.5 line, despite both teams having gone Over 2.5 in 80% of their matches.

A draw at half-time followed by a Wda Świecie win after 90 minutes appears to be the most likely outcome. In their last five matches, the hosts were level at the break in two, while Polonia were level in three; Wda also kept a clean sheet in the first half four times. The hosts’ advantage after the break is clearer: in the sample analysed, they won the second half in four of five matches and scored an average of 2.2 goals in that period, while Polonia won it only once. Wda’s case is also supported by an 80% win rate in the season statistics, compared with Polonia’s 60%. However, this is not a certain pick, as the visitors have a higher average xG — 2.23 against 1.72 — and led at the break more often in this sample, three times compared with two.