Wda Świecie vs Stargard Szczeciński: match statistics

Wda Świecie has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they scored 8 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game, while Stargard scored 4 goals and averages only 0.2 points per game over the same period. At home Wda averages 1.54 goals per game, attempts 12.08 shots (4.92 on target) and has a conversion rate of 14%, while the visitors on the road average 1.46 goals, 11.3 shots (4.5 on target) and a 12% conversion. Both teams concede a lot this season (Wda 42, Stargard 43), however Wda has a higher clean sheet rate of 31% versus 15% for Stargard and in the last 5 matches they conceded 6 goals compared to 12 conceded by the visitors. Quality-of-chances analysis shows xG 1.53 for Wda with xG against 1.74, and for Stargard xG 1.39 with xG against 1.45, which suggests the hosts create slightly better chances despite defensive susceptibility. Considering better form, higher efficiency (14% vs 12%) and a superior recent-5 record, I forecast a home win: 60% Wda, 25% draw and 15% Stargard.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 62% (Wda 62% and Stargard 62%), clearly above the league average of 52%. In the last 5 matches Wda recorded BTTS in 80% (4/5), and Stargard in 60% (3/5), providing a strong signal in favor of both teams scoring. Goal stats show Wda averages 1.69 goals scored (xG 1.51) and concedes 1.77, while Stargard scores 1.46 (xG 1.39) and concedes 1.54; in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded as much as 2.4 goals on average. Additionally, the low clean sheet rate of only 15% for each team and on-target shots levels of 5.11 (Wda) vs 4.5 (Stargard) indicate a high number of situations that favor goals for both sides. It should be noted, however, that in the last 5 matches Stargard averaged only 0.8 goals, which slightly reduces the visitors' chances of regular scoring; nonetheless the aggregate signals (62% seasonal, Wda 80% L5, high average concessions 1.77 and 1.54) lean toward BTTS - Yes (72% vs 28%).

The xG model projects 1.48 goals for the home side (xG attack 1.51 vs opponent xG defense 1.45, yielding 1.48) and 1.31 for the away side (1.39 vs 1.22, yielding 1.31), totaling approximately 2.79 expected goals. Season-long stats show strong probability for Over 1.5: home teams exceed 1.5 in 92% of matches, visitors in 85% (avg ~88.5%), therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 89%. For the 2.5 line, seasonal values are 69% (home) and 54% (away), average ~61.5%, and the expected 2.79 is slightly above 2.5, hence Over 2.5 = 62%. The 3.5 line has weaker backing: season Over 3.5 is 46% vs 38% (avg ~42%), but total xG 2.79 and the high threshold reduce probability to 36%. Additionally, both teams have an Both Teams To Score rate of 62%, and the home side scores 1.69 goals at home while conceding 1.77, which strengthens Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Visitors more often lead at the break — 46% of matches this season see them ahead at half-time versus 38% for hosts — and they scored 5 goals in minutes 0–15 compared to 2 for the hosts, which favors an early lead for the visitors. At the same time hosts look better after the break: in the last 5 matches they average 1.6 points and form ddwwl, whereas visitors have only 0.2 points and form llldl and concede on average 2.4 goals in those 5 matches, suggesting a possible turnaround. Hosts’ xG is 1.51 versus 1.39 for the visitors, and xG against is 1.22 versus 1.45, so hosts have a positive xG difference (+0.29) compared to -0.06 for the visitors, indicating a quality advantage in the latter stages of the match. Additionally hosts scored 5 goals in minutes 31–45 (visitors only 1) and another 5 goals in 76–90, which together with the above statistics makes the scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match (HT/FT 2/1) the most likely.