Wehen Wiesbaden vs Rot-Weiss Essen: match statistics

Wehen Wiesbaden hold a slight edge in the quality of chances created: they average 1.89 xG at home, while Rot-Weiss Essen allow opponents 2.00 xG away from home. The hosts enjoy more possession (55% versus 48%) and record more shots on target per match—7 compared with the visitors’ 5—which should enable them to dictate the tempo. However, both defences are clearly unstable: Wiesbaden concede an average of 3 goals at home, while Essen concede as many as 5 away, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. The visitors are more clinical in front of goal, converting 14% of their shots compared with 7% for the hosts, so their chances of scoring remain high. With both teams recording an identical return of 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches, home advantage and the stronger chance-creation metrics give Wiesbaden a narrow edge.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the current defensive vulnerability of both sides: Wehen Wiesbaden conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Rot-Weiss Essen conceded 2.0. During this period, the visitors scored 1.2 goals per game with an xG of 1.76, whereas the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.33 xG. Essen’s defence allowed opponents 1.43 xG per match, giving Wehen a solid basis to score despite averaging only 1.0 goal in their last five appearances. Both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their last five matches, but the league has a significantly higher rate of 65%, while the average of 3.7 goals per game favours an open game. Wehen’s seasonal 100% clean-sheet record contrasts sharply with the 12 goals conceded in their last 5 matches, making it more likely that Essen will also find the net.

Wehen Wiesbaden’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding as many as 2.4, while Rot-Weiss Essen’s games averaged 3.2 goals, with 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded. The 2.5 line was exceeded in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.7 goals. The attacking potential is further reflected in the xG figures: Wiesbaden averages 1.33 xG and Essen 1.76, while the two defences allow 1.40 and 1.43 xG respectively. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as the combination of both sides’ recent defensive struggles and a projected 2.95 goals clearly points to at least two goals.

Wehen Wiesbaden have a clear edge in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 2.68 compared with 1.49 for Rot-Weiss Essen, while the hosts average 26 shots to their opponents’ 14. Essen’s defensive weakness away from home is particularly significant, as the team has conceded an average of 5.0 goals, whereas Wiesbaden have restricted opponents to just 0.71 xG. In their last five matches, the hosts have led at the break in 40% of games, while the visitors have also been trailing at half-time in 40% of cases. Wiesbaden should be more likely to impose themselves from the outset, although both teams have shown similar recent form, with two wins and three defeats each in their last five matches. The most likely scenario, therefore, is for the hosts to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.