West Ham United vs Derby County: match statistics

West Ham have a clearly more favorable trend over their last five matches: they have earned 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while Derby have collected just 1 point and lost 4 times. The hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 25 shots and 9 on target per match, compared with Derby’s 15 attempts and 4 shots on target away from home. West Ham’s advantage is also evident in chance quality: their average xG stands at 2.80, while the visitors generate 1.57 xG, and Derby allow opponents 1.55 xG. Both teams lost their only matches so far at home and away respectively, and each concedes 2 goals per game in those conditions, so Derby’s chances of scoring remain realistic. Despite the hosts’ defensive issues, their greater attacking output and stronger current form point to a West Ham victory.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: West Ham have recorded BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Derby have done so in 80%, conceding an average of 2.2 and 2.2 goals respectively during these runs. Derby have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season, as have West Ham, whose defence concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game compared with 2.0 for the visitors. The attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: the hosts create an average of 1.33, while Derby average 1.57, with both defences allowing opponents a high xG of 2.21 and 1.55 respectively. West Ham have scored 11 goals in their last five appearances, while Derby have averaged 4.0 shots on target per match, giving the visitors a genuine basis for exploiting the hosts’ weak defence. In addition, the league-wide BTTS success rate stands at as high as 78%, reinforcing the scenario in which each side scores at least once. This supports BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal, not BTTS - No: BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score, and does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team scores.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches so far. West Ham have averaged 2.2 goals scored in their last five matches, while Derby have conceded 2.2 goals per game during this period, clearly supporting the hosts’ high attacking potential. The visitors create an average of 1.57 xG, while West Ham’s defence allows opponents 2.21 xG, meaning Derby should also have genuine scoring opportunities. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 80% of West Ham’s last five matches and 100% of Derby’s, with the league average standing at a high 3.03 goals. The projected total of 3.17 goals also provides a positive signal for Over 2.5, but the 1.5 line remains by far the safest option.

The strongest scenario is West Ham leading at the break and winning after the final whistle, as the hosts have won 40% of their last five matches, while Derby have failed to win any and have lost 80% of them. During this period, West Ham were ahead at half-time in 40% of their matches, whereas Derby went into the break trailing in as many as 75% of their appearances. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in their goal production: they have averaged 2.2 goals per match over their last five league fixtures, while the visitors have conceded 2.2 goals on average. After the break, West Ham score an average of 1.2 goals, compared with just 0.25 for Derby, increasing the likelihood that the hosts’ early lead will be maintained or extended.