Westchester SC vs Union Omaha: match statistics

Although Union Omaha sit 2nd in the standings and Westchester SC are 10th, the hosts have a strong home record: they win 60% of their matches there and score an average of 2.47 goals, while the visitors have a 57% away win rate and average 1.43 goals. Westchester are also unbeaten in their last five matches, with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw and 12 goals scored; Union have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 goals in that run. The quality of chances created is similar — the hosts’ home xG is 1.64, while the visitors’ away xG is 1.59 — so Westchester’s edge in goals scored does not guarantee they will be as clinical in this match. Defensively, the teams concede an average of 1.27 and 1.21 goals respectively in these conditions, but Union have kept a clean sheet in only 7% of their away games. Home advantage and recent form favour Westchester, although the visitors’ season-long tally of 19 wins compared with the hosts’ 10 keeps Union’s chances firmly in the picture.

BTTS occurred in 69% of Westchester SC matches and 57% of Union Omaha games, with both teams recording an 80% rate across their last five matches. The hosts average 2.06 goals per match and have failed to score in only 6% of their games, making a goal from them particularly likely. The visitors average 1.43 goals, with an xG of 1.59; additionally, Westchester have allowed opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.91 over their last five matches. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is that Union Omaha have failed to score in 36% of their games, although they have scored 10 goals in their last five matches. Overall, both teams' current scoring form and the high frequency of BTTS support the expectation that both sides will find the net.

Westchester average 2.06 goals scored at home, while Union Omaha concede 1.21 on the road, giving the hosts a solid platform to find the net. The visitors average 1.43 goals away from home, although the hosts concede just 0.94 at home, so I take a more cautious view of their contribution to the scoreline. In their last five matches, both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games, but across the full season the figures were 56% and 57%, respectively. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals: this line has landed in 88% of Westchester's home matches and 86% of Union Omaha's away matches, making it a safer pick than the higher lines.

Westchester SC have led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 first-half goals and conceding none, making an early home lead a realistic scenario. Over the full season, both teams have led at half-time equally often—in 31% of matches—so the hosts’ recent run is an important but not decisive indicator. Westchester’s overall record supports them holding on to their advantage: they have won 69% of their matches and scored an average of 2.06 goals per game, compared with Union Omaha’s 57% win rate and 1.43 goals. The hosts have also been stronger after the break over the course of the season, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.31 conceded, while the visitors average 0.69 scored and 0.85 conceded. The 1/1 scenario carries some added risk, given that Westchester have scored only 0.4 goals after half-time across their last 5 matches, compared with Union Omaha’s 1.0; however, the combined data still point to the hosts leading at the break and going on to win.