Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin: match statistics

The favorite is Widzew Łódź due to superior home defense and a favorable goal differential. Widzew concedes an average of 1.00 goals per home match and has clean sheets in 43% of games, whereas Motor concedes 1.93 goals on the road and keeps a clean sheet in only 7% of away matches. In attack Widzew scores 1.21 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.59, while Motor scores 1.36 away with xG 1.49, indicating a slight advantage in quality of chances for the hosts (1.59 vs 1.49). In the last 5 matches Motor has scored 7 goals and averages 1.6 points per game, while Widzew has scored 3 goals and averages 1.2 points per game; however, the visitors have conceded 6 goals in that period versus 3 for Widzew and display poor away goal difference (-8 compared to the hosts’ +3). Considering Widzew’s higher shot volume at home (14.43 vs 12.0), higher rate of clean sheets for the hosts and overall better home form, I project a home win: 58% Widzew, 22% draw, 20% Motor.

Both teams show seasonal BTTS rates of 60% (Widzew) and 71% (Motor), versus a league average of 59%, indicating a propensity for matches with goals at both ends. Widzew scores in 87% of games (fails to score in only 13%), while Motor scores in 79% (FTS 21%); the product of these frequencies yields roughly a 69% probability that both teams will score. Additionally, Motor concedes an average of 1.93 goals per game with xG against of 2.05, whereas Widzew’s offensive xG is 1.34 — this highlights Motor’s tendency to leak goals and Widzew’s ability to generate chances. In the last 5 matches Widzew scored 3 goals (0.6 per game) and Motor 7 goals (1.4 per game), with Motor registering 80% BTTS in those 5, further strengthening the signal for BTTS - Yes.

I estimate total xG around 3.25 (1.70 for Widzew and 1.55 for Motor), calculated as the average of Widzew’s attacking xG 1.34 and Motor’s conceded xG 2.05, and Motor’s attacking xG 1.49 and Widzew’s conceded xG 1.62. Season goal averages are 1.33 (Widzew) and 1.36 (Motor), with Widzew conceding 1.07 goals per game and Motor conceding as many as 1.93, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 73% for Widzew and 86% for Motor, while Over 2.5 is 33% for the home side and 64% for the visitors; based on this I forecast about an 84% chance for Over 1.5 and 63% for Over 2.5. Additionally, BTTS is 60% (Widzew) and 71% (Motor), and average shots 11.53/12.0 with shots on target 3.13/4.29 confirm both teams generate scoring opportunities; in the last 5 matches Motor scored 7 goals and Widzew 3. On that basis the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 as the recommended side.

I forecast a draw at half-time — Widzew had 0 goals scored and 0 conceded at half-time in 5 of their last 5 home matches (average 0.0, 100% HT draws), and seasonally hosts are level at the break in 53% of matches. Seasonal averages corroborate an even first half: Widzew scores 0.8 goals on average by half-time versus Motor’s 0.79, while the first-half goal average is 1.33 for the home team compared to 1.71 in away fixtures, suggesting few goals before the break. After the break I favor Widzew — the hosts collect 1.53 points per home game and have 40% clean sheets on the season, whereas Motor concedes 1.93 goals per game on average and has only 7% clean sheets, which increases the hosts’ chances of a win. Additionally, Motor generates 1.49 away xG and 4.29 shots on target per away match, and their away games feature an 86% incidence of at least 0.5 goals in the second half with an average of 1.0 goals conceded after the break, so the outcome is likely to be decided only in the second half. Therefore the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time: I assign X/1 30%, X/X 15% and 1/1 20% as the main scenarios, with other options having lower probability.