Wigan Athletic vs Stockport County: match statistics

Stockport County sit 4th, while Wigan Athletic are 24th, and the visitors have won 2 of their 3 league matches so far. In their last five matches, Stockport have scored 16 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game, whereas Wigan have scored 6 goals, lost 3 times and are averaging just 0.8 points per match. Away from home, Stockport have won every match, scoring an average of 3 goals from 4 shots on target, while Wigan have yet to score at home and lost their only fixture. The hosts do have a higher average home xG, 1.49 compared with their opponents’ 1.08, but their finishing remains a concern: they have managed only 2 shots on target from 15 attempts and have failed to score. Wigan concede an average of 2 goals per home match, which, combined with Stockport’s strong current attacking output, significantly boosts the visitors’ chances of winning.

The signal for both sides to score is very strong, as this season both Wigan and Stockport have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. Stockport have scored 9 goals this season and have averaged 3.2 goals in their last 5 matches, with xG at 2.21, which clearly increases their chances against a Wigan defence conceding an average of 1.8 goals over this period. Wigan have been less efficient recently, averaging 1.2 goals scored, but they create chances worth 1.58 xG per match and will face a Stockport side that has conceded an average of 1.6 goals in its last 5 outings. The hosts also average 22.5 shots and 8 shots on target per match, while the visitors have not recorded a clean sheet. BTTS - Yes is therefore more likely than the scenario in which at least one team fails to score, with the 69% average BTTS rate across the league providing additional confirmation.

Both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far this season, with at least one goal scored in every game. Stockport have averaged 3.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches and created chances worth 2.21 xG, while Wigan have conceded 1.8 goals per game during that period. The hosts are also capable of posing an attacking threat, with an average xG of 1.58 across their last 5 fixtures, while Stockport allow opponents 1.16 xG. Neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, with 0% clean sheets recorded, and both teams have scored in 100% of Stockport’s last five matches. The projected total of 3.25 goals provides a clear edge to Over 1.5, which requires just two goals and is safer than Over 2.5, which is more dependent on a high conversion rate.

Stockport are showing clearly superior current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 3.2 goals and won 60% of their games, while Wigan averaged 1.2 goals and lost 60% of their matches. The visitors are particularly strong before the break, averaging 1.4 first-half goals in this run, leading at the break in 60% of their matches and posting a positive +4 goal difference, compared with Wigan’s figure of 0. Wigan do have the better average xG figures, 2.61 versus 1.08, and average 22.5 shots per match, but their defence has conceded 1.8 goals per game across their last five outings. Stockport have held on to win after the final whistle in 100% of their away matches so far, while their finishing efficiency stands at as high as 33%, compared with 13% for the hosts. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 2/2 outcome, with the visitors taking the lead at the break and completing the win.