Wigry Suwałki vs Swit: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki remain unbeaten this season, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw, while at home they have won both of their matches without conceding a goal. The hosts concede an average of 0.00 goals at home, with an xG against of 0.70, which will be a significant test for Świt. However, the visitors create a high volume of chances away from home: their average xG is as high as 2.45, with 20 shots per match, yet this translates into only 1 goal on average and a 5% conversion rate. Wigry are more efficient in front of goal, scoring 1.5 goals at home from an xG of 1.15, while they have scored 8 times in their last five matches. Świt have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, so the hosts’ defensive solidity and home advantage marginally favour a Wigry win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes comes from the data over the last five matches: both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their games. During this period, Wigry averaged 1.6 goals and Świt 2.0, while conceding 1.0 and 1.4 goals per match, respectively. Świt generates a high average xG of 2.23, while Wigry’s defence allows opponents 1.52 xG, which clearly increases the chance of an away goal. The hosts also have a solid basis for scoring, as they create 1.36 xG, while Świt allows opponents 1.35 xG. Although Wigry have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, this is a very small sample, and their broader form together with the league BTTS rate of 67% provides a slight argument for both teams to score.

In their last five matches, Wigry averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Świt recorded averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The visitors’ attacking potential is supported by a high xG of 2.23 across their last five fixtures, while the hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.52 during this period. Both teams had matches with at least three goals in 40% and 80% of their last five appearances, respectively, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches for each side. However, the Over 1.5 goals line has a clear edge over higher thresholds, as the 3.00-goal projection also leaves a realistic margin for an exactly two-goal outcome. Additionally, the league-wide average stands at 3.33 goals, supporting a scenario with at least two goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Wigry win, as the hosts have been level at the break in 67% of their recent matches and have not conceded a single goal during that period. Świt also tend to start cautiously, recording a half-time draw in 50% of their matches, although they have scored an average of 0.75 goals before the break compared with Wigry’s 0.33. After the interval, home advantage and Wigry’s recent results point towards a home victory: the hosts have won 60% of their latest matches, while Świt have lost 40%. Wigry also have a significantly better shot-conversion rate, 27% compared with the visitors’ mere 5%, which could prove decisive in taking one of their second-half chances. The risk to this pick is Świt’s high xG of 2.45, exceeding Wigry’s 2.17, meaning scenarios in which the visitors earn a point or complete a turnaround still retain a significant probability.