Wil vs Kriens: match statistics

Kriens hold a slight attacking quality edge away from home: they average 1.48 xG compared with Wil’s 1.27 xG at home, while also scoring 2 goals per match versus the hosts’ 1. The visitors are significantly more clinical, converting 18% of their shots into goals, while Wil converts just 6%; they also record 4 shots on target per game compared with only 1 for the hosts. Wil get more attempts away, averaging 16 shots per match to Kriens’ 11, but fail to turn this into results, conceding as many as 16 goals in their last five matches. Both teams have lost all of their matches so far at home and away respectively, and neither has kept a clean sheet, so an open game with goals at both ends is expected. Although Wil have scored 13 goals in their last five appearances, Kriens’ superior finishing and greater possession control (59% versus 49%) give the visitors a slight edge.

The signal for both sides to score is particularly strong on the Kriens side, which averages 2.0 goals per game in the competition, has kept no clean sheets and has recorded BTTS in 100% of its matches. In their last five games, Wil scored as many as 2.6 goals and conceded 3.2, while the scenario with both teams finding the net occurred in 80% of those matches. The hosts create an average of 1.79 xG, with 5.5 shots on target per game, while Kriens generates 1.48 xG, giving both teams a solid basis to score. Kriens’ defence concedes an average of 3.0 goals and 1.71 xG, so Wil should have particularly favourable conditions to break through. The BTTS - Yes pick is stronger than the league average of 53% of such matches, although Wil’s 50% clean-sheet rate across the season limits confidence in the prediction.

Wil have averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, but have also conceded as many as 3.2, with all of these games going over the 2.5-goal line. Kriens score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while their defence allows opponents 3.0 goals, clearly favouring a high-scoring game for the home side. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures: 1.89 for Wil and 1.69 for Kriens in their last five appearances, amounting to 3.58 expected goals in total. Both teams have so far recorded 100% of matches with at least 2 goals, while Kriens have scored and conceded in every game. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the data strongly supports a minimum of two goals, even when accounting for the volatility of a small seasonal sample.

Wil have a clearly stronger record in their matches at home so far: they score an average of 1.0 goals, concede 1.0, and have won 50% of their games, while Kriens have lost all of their away matches and conceded an average of 3.0 goals. The hosts were leading at the break in 50% of those appearances, whereas Kriens have never been ahead at half-time away from home and went into the interval trailing in 100% of cases. Wil’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average xG of 1.79 compared with the visitors’ 1.48, while the hosts record an average of 5.5 shots on target versus Kriens’ 4.0. Wil’s last five matches have nevertheless been very open, producing an average of 5.8 goals, so the possibility of a turnaround or a change in the result after half-time remains significant. The most likely scenario is still that Wil will exploit the opponent’s defensive weakness in the first half, take the lead before the break, and hold on to it until full-time.