Willem II vs Excelsior: match statistics

Excelsior sit 7th, while Willem II are only 15th, and the visitors’ season record stands at 2 wins and 1 defeat compared with the hosts’ 0 victories. Excelsior are in significantly better form: they have collected 10 points and scored 11 goals in their last five matches, whereas Willem II have managed just 4 points while conceding as many as 13 goals. Away from home, Excelsior have won every match so far, averaging 4 goals scored and conceding none, with an xG of 1.82 and an xG against of 0.85. Willem II concede an average of 3 goals per home match, have not kept a clean sheet, and their opponents create chances worth an average of 2.12 xG against them. The hosts are capable of scoring, but their 1.14 xG and just 36% possession suggest that Excelsior should have the edge in terms of chance quality.

BTTS - Yes looks favorable, as Willem II have scored in 100% of matches played by both teams so far, while in the last five games both teams scored in 100% of Willem II’s matches and 80% of Excelsior’s. Willem II have conceded an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, with a very high against-xG of 2.21, which significantly strengthens Excelsior’s chances of scoring. The visitors are highly dangerous offensively: they have averaged 2.2 goals in their last five matches, with an average xG of 1.34. The risk to this pick is Excelsior’s more solid defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 100% of matches this season and allows an xG of 0.85. However, Willem II generate an xG of 1.24 at home and average 3.5 shots on target. Additionally, the league’s BTTS rate stands at as much as 76%, making a scenario in which both sides score more likely than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or neither team scoring.

In their last five matches, Willem II averaged 1.4 goals scored and as many as 2.6 goals conceded, resulting in an average of 4.0 goals per game. Over the same period, Excelsior scored 2.2 goals per match, while their opponents created chances worth only 1.36 xG on average, compared with 2.21 xG allowed by Willem II’s defense. Over 2.5 goals landed in all five of Willem II’s last matches and in 80% of Excelsior’s games, while both teams exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far this season. Additionally, Excelsior averages 18 shots and 9 shots on target, clearly more than Willem II’s 10 shots and 3.5 shots on target. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.0 goals and the visitors’ attacking profile significantly reduce the risk of a very low-scoring game.

Excelsior have a clear attacking quality advantage: they average 1.82 xG compared with Willem II’s 1.24, registering 18 shots and 9 on target per match, compared with the hosts’ 10 and 3.5, respectively. The visitors have averaged 3.0 goals before half-time and have conceded none during that period, while in their last five matches they were leading at the break in 60% of games, compared with just 20% for Willem II. The hosts’ defence allows opponents an average of 1.66 xG, and the team conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match across their last five outings. Excelsior won 60% of their last five matches and averaged 2.2 goals in them, making an Excelsior lead at half-time and a win at the final whistle the most likely HT/FT outcome: 1/1.