Wimborne Town vs Hanworth Villa: match statistics

Hanworth Villa are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, while Wimborne Town have recorded just 1 victory and a 7:7 goal difference. The visitors have also been significantly more defensively consistent throughout the season, conceding only 2 goals in 4 matches compared with 4 conceded by the hosts. Away from home, Hanworth Villa create chances worth an average xG of 1.49, while their opponents have an xG of 0.97; they average 15 shots per match and maintain 60% possession. Wimborne Town are yet to win at home, average 0.5 goals per match and have not kept a clean sheet. Although the visitors also score only 0.5 goals per away match, their advantage in form and the quality of chances created points to an away victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Hanworth Villa are scoring just 0.5 goals per match this season and have failed to score in 50% of their fixtures. The hosts have a very solid defence, conceding an average of 0.5 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while their xG against is only 0.77. Hanworth Villa have also kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances and concede an average of 0.5 goals, which reduces confidence that even the highly effective at-home Wimborne, averaging 3.0 goals, will find the net. Hanworth's season BTTS rate is 0%, compared with 50% for Wimborne, while both teams recorded BTTS in just 40% of their last five matches. The visitors have recently shown good attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals across five fixtures, but their 7% shot conversion rate and the hosts' defensive strength still make a No Goal outcome for at least one side more likely.

The model projects 2.35 goals, as the hosts create chances worth 1.64 xG per match, while Hanworth Villa concede an average of just 0.97 xG. The visitors have a solid attacking output of 1.49 xG, but Wimborne Town’s defence allows opponents only 0.77 xG, limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. In each team’s last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in only 40% of cases, while Hanworth Villa conceded just 0.6 goals per match during that period. Additionally, both teams have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches so far, meaning there is limited basis for a scenario featuring four or more goals. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as it combines a moderate goal projection with clear indications of defensive stability.

The strongest signal is Hanworth Villa’s current form: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceding just 0.6. In those same five games, they were leading at the break in 80% of cases, while Wimborne Town were behind at half-time in 60% of their matches, scoring just 0.4 goals per game before the interval. The visitors’ advantage in the opening 45 minutes is further reflected in their average of 1.0 goals scored compared with 0.4 for the hosts, as well as a goal difference of +3 versus -3. Wimborne do have very strong figures from a small sample of home matches, scoring 3.0 goals and recording a 100% win rate, but the hosts’ current run amounts to just 1.0 point per game compared with Hanworth’s 2.4. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is Hanworth leading at the break and holding on for the win, although the hosts’ home advantage leaves a significant risk of a turnaround.