Wimborne Town vs Havant & Waterlooville: match statistics

Wimborne Town head into this match on the back of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, while Havant & Waterlooville have recorded 1 draw and 4 defeats over the same period. The hosts have scored 11 goals and conceded 4 in those matches, compared with 5 scored and 10 conceded by the visitors, highlighting a clear difference in attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. At home, Wimborne concede an average of just 0.4 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 60% of games, whereas Havant concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home and have lost all 4 of their matches so far. The visitors create chances worth 1.27 xG per away game but average 1 goal scored, so they could pose a threat to the hosts, although their defence allows chances worth 1.7 xG. These figures point to a Wimborne win, while leaving some possibility of a draw.

BTTS occurred in 80% of the two teams’ last 5 matches, a stronger signal for goals at both ends than their season figures of 40% for Wimborne Town and 75% for Havant & Waterlooville. The hosts have recently averaged 2.2 goals per match, while the visitors have conceded 2.0, making a Wimborne goal seem likely. Havant average 1.0 goal and have an xG of 1.27, although Wimborne have conceded just 0.8 goals per match across their last 5 appearances. The risk that one team fails to score remains significant, especially as Wimborne have drawn a blank in 40% of their matches, but the current BTTS frequency supports a BTTS - Yes pick.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 100% of the away team’s matches and 60% of the home team’s matches. In their last 5 matches, Wimborne averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Havant conceded 2.0, increasing the likelihood of the hosts scoring several goals. Wimborne’s season xG stands at 1.54, compared with Havant’s 1.70 xG conceded. However, both teams average 1.0 goals scored, so the forecast also accounts for the risk of lower finishing efficiency. The 2.5 line is less reliable: it was surpassed in 20% of the home team’s matches and 75% of the away team’s matches. With a projected total of 2.90 goals, Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge than the other lines.

A draw at half-time followed by a Wimborne Town win at full-time is the most likely outcome. The hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches and did not lead at half-time in any of them; they also drew at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Their advantage becomes more pronounced after the break: they score an average of 0.8 goals in the second half, while Havant & Waterlooville concede an average of 1.25. The hosts’ recent form also supports a win, with 3 victories and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, compared with 4 defeats and 1 draw for the visitors. One risk to the half-time draw is that the visitors were trailing at the break in 3 of their 4 matches to date, making a home lead at the break a close alternative.