Wisła Płock II vs Troszyn: match statistics

Wisła Płock II are favorites: they have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, drawing the other two, while Troszyn have lost 3 of their last 5 away games. The hosts average 2.4 goals and 5.4 shots on target per match at home, whereas the visitors score just 1 goal from 3.75 shots on target per game on the road. Wisła also have the edge in shot conversion, at 20% compared with Troszyn’s 11%, while the visitors concede an average of 2.2 goals away from home. However, the gap in chance creation is smaller than the difference in goals scored: Wisła’s home xG is 1.58, compared with Troszyn’s away xG of 1.32. The hosts concede an average of 1.6 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, so despite their advantage, a draw or a goal for the visitors remains a realistic possibility.

The case for both teams to score is supported by their respective rates of matches featuring this outcome to date: 100% for Wisła Płock II and 60% for Troszyn, against a league average of 70%. Over their last 5 matches, the figures were 60% and 80%, respectively, and both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored per game during that period. Wisła have conceded 1.4 goals per game recently, while Troszyn have conceded 1.8, suggesting that both defences are allowing opponents chances to score. The teams’ xG figures—1.41 for the hosts and 1.32 for the visitors—also support a goal for each side. Some caution is warranted, as Troszyn have failed to score in 20% of their matches, but the overall data point more clearly to BTTS - Yes.

Wisła Płock II average 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match, while Troszyn average 1.0 and 2.2 respectively, pointing to defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. In their last five matches, the hosts have featured in games averaging 3.0 goals, while the visitors’ matches have averaged 3.4. The xG figures also support the prospect of goals: Wisła create chances worth an average of 1.41 goals, and Troszyn 1.32. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest backing in the results: the line has been cleared in 100% of Wisła’s matches and 80% of Troszyn’s, while Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% and 40% of their matches respectively. Therefore, despite a forecast of 3.2 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the safer pick and better supported by the data than the higher lines.

In their last five matches, Wisła Płock II were level at half-time four times, pointing to an evenly contested start. At home, the hosts average 13.33 shots per match compared with Troszyn’s 9.5 away from home, while their xG is 1.41 against the visitors’ 1.32, giving them a basis to take control as the game progresses. After the break, Wisła averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five matches, while Troszyn conceded 1.2 goals in the second half of their away games. The X/1 HT/FT outcome remains only a moderate favourite, however: Wisła have failed to win any of the five home matches considered, although they have recorded two wins across their last five matches overall.