Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: match statistics

Wiślanie Jaśkowice hold a slight home advantage: they score an average of 1.6 goals per match, while Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.5 away from home and concede the same number. The hosts create considerably more chances, with an average home xG of 1.84 compared with Siarka’s 1.28 away, and record 6.5 shots on target per match against Siarka’s 3.67. Wiślanie also have the stronger defensive record over the season: they have conceded 11 goals in 11 matches, while Siarka have let in 15. Recent results add uncertainty to the forecast, however: the hosts have won only 1 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 of 5 for the visitors, and both teams have conceded 7 goals during that spell. Wiślanie’s greater chance creation tips the balance in their favour, although their recent struggles to pick up points mean they cannot be considered clear favourites to win.

BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of Wiślanie’s last 5 matches and 60% of Siarka’s games, pointing to frequent goals at both ends. Over this period, both teams conceded an average of 1.4 goals per match, while scoring 1.2 and 1.4 goals respectively. The hosts’ chances of finding the net are boosted by the fact that Siarka kept a clean sheet in only 17% of their matches this season and concede an average of 1.5 goals. Meanwhile, Wiślanie allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.83 xG, although their 40% clean-sheet rate is a significant argument against BTTS - Yes. Therefore, backing both teams to score has the edge, but the hosts’ season BTTS rate of 40% limits confidence in the prediction.

All of Siarka’s matches and 60% of Wiślan’s matches have featured at least 2 goals, making Over 1.5 the best-supported line based on past results. Siarka average 1.5 goals scored, while Wiślan concede 1.2; on the other hand, the home side score 1.0 goal on average, while the visitors concede 1.5. Both teams’ attacking potential is reflected in their average xG of 1.31 for Wiślan and 1.28 for Siarka, although the visitors have managed just 0.61 xG per match across their last 5 games. An estimated total of 2.60 goals supports backing at least 2 goals, but Over 2.5 is less certain: that line has been cleared in 40% of the home side’s matches and 33% of the visitors’ matches.

The strongest, though still uncertain, signal points to Wiślan leading at the break and Siarka winning after a turnaround. The hosts led at half-time in 50% of the matches analysed and conceded no goals in the first half, while Siarka were trailing at the break in 60% of their matches and averaged just 0.2 goals in those first halves. The pattern reverses after half-time: Siarka average 1.4 goals, while Wiślan concede 1.5 and lost 75% of second halves. Siarka’s average of 1.5 goals per match, compared with Wiślan’s 1.0, and the hosts’ 1.83 xG conceded versus 1.29 for the visitors also support the prospect of a comeback. However, the 1/2 HT/FT pick has only a 22% probability, as the hosts holding on to their lead or drawing after leading also remain realistic scenarios.