Wisłoka Dębica vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska: match statistics

Wisłoka Dębica have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 1.50 goals, generate 1.61 xG, and register 6 shots on target per match, while Podlasie score just 0.67 goals away from home. The visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches, and their average xG against stands at 1.81, which should give the hosts opportunities to create an advantage. However, Podlasie have shown more consistent form in their last five matches, collecting 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, compared with Wisłoka’s 6 points. The hosts’ defence remains a concern, as they concede an average of 2 goals at home and have kept no clean sheets, but Podlasie’s weaker away attacking output narrowly tips the prediction in Wisłoka’s favour.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Podlasie scores only 0.67 goals per match on average and failed to find the net in as many as 67% of its matches this season. Wisłoka concedes an average of 0.67 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 33% of matches, further reducing the visitors’ chances of scoring. In their last five outings, Podlasie generated just 0.54 xG per match, significantly less than Wisłoka’s 1.26 xG, so the greatest risk of a scoreless performance concerns the away side. Although Wisłoka recorded BTTS in 60% of its last five matches, Podlasie did so in only 40%, while its season-long BTTS rate stands at 0% compared with the league average of 52%. The hosts should have a chance to score, given that their opponents average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded, but the scenario in which at least one team fails to score remains more likely.

The profile of both teams points to a match with limited goal-scoring potential: Wisłoka score an average of 1.00 goal, while Podlasie score 0.67, with both teams conceding an average of 0.67 and 1.00 goals, respectively. In their matches so far, neither side has recorded a game with at least 4 goals, and the percentage of matches finishing under 3.5 goals stands at 100% for both teams. In their last 5 matches, Podlasie allowed opponents an average of just 0.8 goals, while their average xG against is only 0.81, which should limit the hosts. Wisłoka have been less stable defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per game recently, but Podlasie created just 0.54 xG per match during this period. The projected totals of 1.02 goals for Wisłoka and 0.78 for Podlasie produce an overall total of 1.80, making Under 3.5 the clearest value.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time, as Wisłoka have been level at the break in 100% of their home matches to date, compared with 50% for Podlasie away from home. The hosts have yet to score or concede before half-time, while the visitors average 0.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded in this phase. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Wisłoka: across their last five matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals in the second half, compared with 0.33 for Podlasie. In addition, Podlasie have lost 100% of the second halves in the away data and concede an average of 1.0 goal in them, whereas Wisłoka have not lost any. Although the visitors have recently been harder to beat over the full 90 minutes, averaging 1.6 points per match compared with 1.2 for the hosts, the scenario of a goalless first half followed by Wisłoka gaining the upper hand is the most likely. The corresponding HT/FT selection is X/1.