Wolfsburg vs Bayern München: match statistics
Wolfsburg vs Bayern München: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Wolfsburg played Bayern München in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Wolfsburg: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Bayern München: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Wolfsburg scores 1.31 and concedes 2.09 goals per match. Bayern München scores 3.63 and concedes 1.09. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Wolfsburg 75%, Bayern München 66%. Over 2.5: Wolfsburg 66%, Bayern München 97%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Bayern München has higher xG: 2.31 vs 1.32. Wolfsburg: 11.5 shots per match, Bayern München: 19.3.
Match halves
Wolfsburg: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.66. Bayern München: half-time lead 59%, second-half goals 2.16.
Goals by minute
Wolfsburg: 0-15 (9 goals). Bayern München: 76-90+ (34 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 9.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win ('2') because Bayern averages 3.31 goals per away match with an average xG of 2.11 and 8.06 shots on target, whereas Wolfsburg at home scores only 1.31 goals per match with xG 1.56 and 4.69 shots on target. Bayern has a 20% shot-to-goal conversion rate versus Wolfsburg’s 10%, and Bayern have 0% of away matches without scoring compared to 25% of Wolfsburg’s home matches without a goal. Defensively the hosts concede an average of 1.94 goals at home, while Bayern concede 1.06 away; although Bayern conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), their attack scored 14 goals (2.8 per game) versus Wolfsburg’s 7 (1.4) over the same period. Additionally, Bayern win 81% of away fixtures compared to only 13% home wins for Wolfsburg, and average possession of 67% versus 50% indicates game control and more chances. Based on these advantages I estimate Bayern’s win probability at about 75%, draw 15% and Wolfsburg win 10%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show a strong BTTS signal: Wolfsburg have 69% of matches with both teams scoring this season, Bayern 63%, and in the last 5 meetings each side produced BTTS in 80% of cases. This season Wolfsburg scored 42 and conceded 67 (avg 1.13 conceded per match), while Bayern scored 116 and conceded 35 (avg 1.06 conceded). xG metrics indicate Wolfsburg generate xG 2.50 and allow xG 1.00, and Bayern have xG 2.11 and concede xG 1.22, meaning both teams create and concede clear scoring chances. In the last 5 matches Wolfsburg averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, and Bayern 2.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, confirming a tendency for goal exchange. Considering the 69% vs 63% seasonal BTTS, 80% in the last 5 and low clean sheet rates of 31% and 38% (below the league 43%), I assess the "Both Teams To Score - Yes" scenario as dominant and assign it a 78% probability versus 22% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based forecast: Wolfsburg has an average attacking xG of 2.50 while Bayern’s defense concedes an average xG of 1.22, implying an expected ~1.86 goals for Wolfsburg. Conversely, Bayern’s attacking xG is 2.11 and Wolfsburg’s defense concedes 1.00, implying ~1.56 goals for Bayern and a total of 3.42 goals in the match. Seasonal stats confirm high goal potential — Wolfsburg has 100% of matches over 1.5 and 100% over 2.5, Bayern 100% over 1.5 and 94% over 2.5; additionally BTTS occurred in 69% and 63% of their matches. Average shots on target 9.0 (Wolfsburg) and 8.06 (Bayern) with conversion rates of 18% and 20%, and the last 5 games showing a combined goals average around 4.2 (1.4+2.8), increase the likelihood of more goals. For these reasons I back the over side and consider the 1.5 line the strongest signal (very high probability — I estimate 98% for Over 1.5), while Over 2.5 also has solid support (~85%) given the seasonal indicators.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Wolfsburg led at the break in 12 of 16 home matches (75%), averaging 2.06 goals by HT versus Bayern’s just 0.88 HT goals, which strongly favors the home side after 45 minutes. Bayern, however, dominate second halves: the visitors average 2.44 goals after the break and win the second half in 81% of cases, while Wolfsburg score 1.88 goals after the break and win the second half in 63% of matches. xG shows 2.50 for Wolfsburg and 2.11 for Bayern, meaning Wolfsburg creates more HT chances but Bayern have greater productivity and a stronger ability to effect a turnaround in the second half. Given the 75% probability of Wolfsburg leading at halftime combined with Bayern’s 81% effectiveness in second halves, the most likely scenario is 1/2 (home lead HT, away win FT) with the highest assigned probability of 34%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Wolfsburg | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bayern München is 160% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Wolfsburg · 2.6 pts / match - Bayern München
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bayern München is 177% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - Wolfsburg · 3.63 goals / match - Bayern München
Bayern München is 92% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.09 goals / match - Wolfsburg · 1.09 goals / match - Bayern München
Wolfsburg scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Bayern München keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 matches).
Bayern München scores in 100% of matches (32 of 32 matches), while Wolfsburg keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Wolfsburg
Over / Under - Bayern München
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bayern München is 66% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Wolfsburg · 2.03 pts / match - Bayern München
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Wolfsburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bayern München - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 59% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +10 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -13 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (34 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +23 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Wolfsburg
Bayern München
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Wolfsburg | Liga | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.41 | 3.22 | ▲ 4.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 62% | ▲ 66% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 66% | 63% | ▲ 97% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 6% | 21% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 77% | ▲ 94% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 85% | ▲ 97% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Wolfsburg 0 - 0 - 1 Bayern München. Average goals 9.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
The Bundesliga match finished Wolfsburg 0:1 Bayern München. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
Wolfsburg score 1.31 goals per game on average and Bayern München 3.63. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Wolfsburg's matches and 66% of Bayern München's.
What form are Wolfsburg and Bayern München in?
Over the last 5 games Wolfsburg have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Bayern München 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Wolfsburg vs Bayern München?
The statistical background for Wolfsburg vs Bayern München — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.