Worthing vs Boreham Wood: match statistics

Boreham Wood sit 3rd, remain unbeaten after 3 league matches, and have collected 11 points from their last five games, compared with Worthing’s 9. The visitors are highly effective away from home: they average 3 goals scored and concede just 0.5 per match, while winning both of their away fixtures so far. Worthing create more chances, averaging 16 shots and an xG of 1.85 at home, but convert this into just 1 goal per game, with a 6% shot conversion rate. Boreham Wood’s defence looks more solid, allowing opponents an away xG of 0.85, compared with Worthing conceding an xG of 1.49. The hosts have the advantage in possession at 56%, but greater attacking efficiency and stronger away results point towards a victory for the visitors.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Worthing have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, while Boreham Wood have done so in 80% of their last five fixtures. The hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet, and their current xG conceded stands at 1.67, giving the visitors a solid platform to find the net. Boreham Wood have scored an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches and created an average of 1.65 xG in those games, while Worthing have conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Worthing should also respond offensively: they average 9 shots on target per match, have a season xG of 2.59, and the visitors’ defence has allowed an average of 1.16 xG in their last five appearances. The 67% BTTS probability is higher than the league average of 61%, although Boreham Wood’s 50% clean-sheet rate leaves a genuine risk of a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

The strongest choice is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have surpassed this line in 100% of their league matches so far. Worthing create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.59 xG, 17 shots and 9 shots on target per game, although Boreham Wood concede just 0.5 goals on average away from home. The visitors have scored 2.6 goals per game across their last five matches, while Worthing have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home fixture. The recent form of both sides also points towards goals: Worthing matches have produced an average of 2.8 goals, while Boreham Wood matches have averaged 4.0 goals in their last five outings. The projected total of 2.90 goals also gives an edge to Over 2.5, but the 1.5 line is clearly safer and best supported by the data.

Boreham Wood are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 60% of them, while Worthing have lost 40% of their games over the same period. The visitors have been particularly strong starters: they led at the break in 75% of their recent appearances, compared with 60% for the hosts, and their average first-half goal difference stands at +0.8, versus +0.4 for Worthing. In the current away data, Boreham Wood led at half-time in both of their two matches and conceded no goals before the break, whereas Worthing were level at half-time in their only home match. After the interval, the visitors average 1.5 goals scored across their last five matches, while Worthing concede 0.8 goals during that period, further supporting the scenario of the visitors maintaining their lead. The hosts have a higher average xG, 2.59 compared with 1.16, but Boreham Wood’s defence allows only 0.85 xG and concedes an average of 0.5 goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a Boreham Wood lead at half-time followed by an away win: 2/2.