Worthing vs Wealdstone: match statistics

Worthing have a clearly better recent record: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 14 goals in the process, while Wealdstone have failed to win any of their five games, scoring just 5 goals. However, the hosts are vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals at home with an xG against of 2.20 and failing to keep a clean sheet. Wealdstone also concede an average of 2 goals away from home, while their defence allows opponents chances worth 1.89 xG, which should benefit Worthing’s attack. The visitors are effective on the road, averaging 2 goals per game with a 22% shot conversion rate, making it highly likely that they will score. Worthing’s advantage in recent form and significantly greater attacking output nevertheless point to a marginally higher probability of a home win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, and neither side has kept a clean sheet, which is a very strong signal for goals at both ends. Worthing concede an average of 3.0 goals per match, while Wealdstone concede 2.0, with the hosts creating an average of 1.55 xG and the visitors 1.30 xG. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, and each conceded 1.6 goals per match. Worthing scored 2.8 goals per game during this period, while Wealdstone, despite their lower average of 1.0 goal, should benefit from the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities. In addition, all previous matches involving both teams have ended with over 2.5 goals and goals scored by both sides, making BTTS - Yes the most likely outcome.

Worthing have averaged 2.8 goals scored in their last five matches, while Wealdstone have conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. The xG model also points to an open game: Worthing average 1.55 xG, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.89 xG. Wealdstone have scored in every match so far, and both teams have recorded 100% of matches with goals from both sides and at least 2 total goals. In their last five appearances, both teams saw goals scored by both sides in 80% of matches, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest pick with a projected total of 3.05 goals.

Worthing have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals, while Wealdstone have failed to win any of their five games and scored just 1.0 goal per match. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of this run, whereas the visitors did so on none of those occasions; Wealdstone were level at half-time in 80% of their matches and managed only 0.4 goals before the break. Worthing’s advantage is also evident after half-time: they averaged 1.8 goals in the second half, compared with 0.6 for Wealdstone. Although Wealdstone have a high shot-conversion rate of 22%, compared with 8% for the hosts, their average xG stands at 1.30, while Worthing create chances worth 1.55 xG. The HT/FT scenario of Worthing leading at half-time and winning the match is therefore the one most strongly supported by current form and the hosts’ clearly superior goal production.