Wrexham vs Millwall: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced encounter between two sides from the top half of the table. Wrexham displays solid home form with a 40% win rate and an average of 1.73 goals per match, yet as many as 40% of their games end in a draw. Millwall in away matches achieves an identical win percentage (36%) and draw rate (36%), confirming their stability on the road. The key factor is Wrexham's advantage in ball possession (52% vs 44%) and a higher xG (1.64 vs 1.27), but Millwall is characterized by a better away defense (1.29 goals conceded vs the hosts' 1.47). The recent form of both teams is similar (1.6 vs 1.4 points per match), and the goal difference suggests a draw is possible. Considering all factors, I predict a tight match with a slight home advantage, yet Wrexham's high percentage of home draws makes this outcome the most probable.
Wrexham vs Millwall: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Wrexham played Millwall in Championship (England). The match was played on 7 February 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Wrexham: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Millwall: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Wrexham scores 1.47 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Millwall scores 1.23 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Wrexham 67%, Millwall 47%. Over 2.5: Wrexham 43%, Millwall 47%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Millwall has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.30. Wrexham: 11.4 shots per match, Millwall: 13.0.
Match halves
Wrexham: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.87. Millwall: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Wrexham: 76-90+ (12 goals). Millwall: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a balanced encounter between two sides from the top half of the table. Wrexham displays solid home form with a 40% win rate and an average of 1.73 goals per match, yet as many as 40% of their games end in a draw. Millwall in away matches achieves an identical win percentage (36%) and draw rate (36%), confirming their stability on the road. The key factor is Wrexham's advantage in ball possession (52% vs 44%) and a higher xG (1.64 vs 1.27), but Millwall is characterized by a better away defense (1.29 goals conceded vs the hosts' 1.47). The recent form of both teams is similar (1.6 vs 1.4 points per match), and the goal difference suggests a draw is possible. Considering all factors, I predict a tight match with a slight home advantage, yet Wrexham's high percentage of home draws makes this outcome the most probable.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Wrexham | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wrexham is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Wrexham · 1.23 goals / match - Millwall
Wrexham scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Millwall keeps a clean sheet in 37% (11 of 30 matches).
Millwall scores in 77% of matches (23 of 30 matches), while Wrexham keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Wrexham
Over / Under - Millwall
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Millwall is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Wrexham · 1.4 pts / match - Millwall
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Wrexham - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Millwall - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Wrexham
Millwall
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Wrexham | Liga | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.70 | 2.57 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 50% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 25% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 71% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Wrexham 1 - 0 - 0 Millwall. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Wrexham vs Millwall?
The Championship match finished Wrexham 0:2 Millwall. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Wrexham vs Millwall?
Wrexham score 1.47 goals per game on average and Millwall 1.23. The Championship average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Wrexham's matches and 47% of Millwall's.
What form are Wrexham and Millwall in?
Over the last 5 games Wrexham have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Millwall 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Wrexham vs Millwall?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.