WSPG Wels vs Admira: match statistics

Admira have significantly better away attacking numbers, averaging 1.5 goals per match compared with just 0.5 for WSPG Wels at home. The visitors also create more chances, averaging 11.5 shots and 5 on target, versus 8 and 2.5 respectively for the hosts, while their xG stands at 1.55 compared with Wels’ 1.16. WSPG Wels’ home defence remains a major concern, as the team concedes an average of 2 goals and allows opponents an xG of 1.97, while keeping no clean sheets. Admira have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, which limits confidence in the prediction, but Wels have suffered two consecutive home defeats and are yet to pick up a point on home soil. The visitors’ superior quality and greater chance-creation output should tilt the result in their favour.

The BTTS pick is not a marginal favorite, as WSPG Wels have averaged no goals scored in the season data and failed to score in 100% of their matches, while Admira kept a clean sheet in 50% of games. However, the hosts are creating chances worth 1.82 xG and averaging 6.5 shots on target, so their goalless run appears worse than their attacking potential suggests. In their last five matches, Wels have averaged 1.4 goals scored, conceded 1.6, and recorded BTTS in 80% of games, which clearly reduces confidence in a No Goal outcome for both teams. Admira have managed only 0.8 goals per match during this period despite 1.80 xG, while their 40% BTTS rate further suggests a risk that one side will fail to score. The strongest signal nevertheless remains the hosts' season-long lack of attacking efficiency combined with the visitors' relatively solid defense, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The xG profile points to an open game: WSPG Wels creates an average of 1.82 xG, while Admira records 1.55, with the hosts allowing opponents 1.25 xG and the visitors as much as 1.80. In their last five matches, Wels scored 1.4 goals and conceded 1.6 per game, while both teams scored in 80% of their matches. Admira has been less clinical, averaging 0.8 goals per game recently, but generated a high 1.80 xG, suggesting potential for improved finishing. The league average is 3.03 goals, and 59% of matches have gone Over 2.5, making at least two goals the most likely scenario. Over 1.5 also has an edge because both teams have featured in a match with at least one goal in every game played so far this season, while the underlying data clearly supports a second goal.

The strongest-looking HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a WSPG Wels win at full-time: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Admira were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5. WSPG Wels have also shown better end results during this period, averaging 1.4 goals and 1.4 points per match, compared with Admira’s 0.8 goals, 0.6 points and 4 defeats in 5 appearances. The hosts are also creating more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.82 versus the visitors’ 1.55 and an average of 6.5 shots on target compared with Admira’s 5.0. However, WSPG Wels have conceded an average of 1.0 goal after half-time over their last five matches, so a full-time draw and a turnaround in favour of the visitors remain important alternatives, although a home advantage after an even first half is the most likely outcome.