Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen: match statistics

Alemannia Aachen sit 4th, while Würzburger Kickers are only 14th, and the difference is reflected in their current form: the visitors have picked up 10 points from their last five matches, compared with just 4 for the hosts. Aachen have scored 14 goals during this period, while Kickers have found the net 8 times, and have conceded 6 goals compared with 9 for the home side. Alemannia have not lost any away fixture, averaging 2 goals scored and just 0.5 goals conceded per match, which is a clearly stronger defensive record than Würzburg’s 1 goal conceded per home game. The hosts are nevertheless dangerous at home, averaging 2.5 goals and 4 shots on target per match, so their chances of scoring remain high. The visitors’ advantage in game control, measured by average possession of 62% versus 47%, along with their more consistent run of results, nevertheless points to an Alemannia victory as the more likely outcome.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is moderately positive, as both teams have seen this outcome in 60% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 57%. Würzburger Kickers have scored an average of 1.6 goals in this sequence, but conceded as many as 1.8, while their season clean-sheet rate stands at 0%. Alemannia Aachen are in very good attacking form: they have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.8 per game, with an xG of 1.52. The hosts average 5.5 shots on target per match, while their opponents, despite recording clean sheets in 50% of their games this season, have recently conceded an average of 1.2 goals and posted an xG against of 1.39. Aachen’s defensive stability and both teams’ 50% season BTTS rates limit confidence, but the hosts’ defensive weakness and the visitors’ current efficiency provide stronger support for a Goal/Goal outcome.

In their last five matches, Würzburger Kickers have recorded games averaging 3.4 goals, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 goals per match. Alemannia Aachen present an even more open profile: they score an average of 2.8 goals and concede 1.2, resulting in a total of 4.0 goals across their last five appearances. The 2.5-goal line has been exceeded in 100% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of the visitors’ matches, with the league average standing at 3.3 goals. Aachen have recently created chances worth 1.52 xG, while both teams allow their opponents around 1.4 xG, making Over 1.5 goals the most reliable pick.

Alemannia Aachen have a clearly stronger away profile: in their matches played away from home so far, they have led at the break in 2 of 2 games, averaging 2.0 goals before half-time and conceding none. In their last five matches, the visitors have won 60% of their games, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding 1.2, while Würzburger Kickers have won only 20%, scoring 1.6 goals and allowing 1.8. The advantage after the break also lies with Aachen, who have averaged 1.8 goals in their last five appearances, compared with just 0.4 for the hosts. Würzburg do generate more shots on target, 5.5 compared with 3.5, and have a slightly higher xG, 1.47 versus 1.34, but the hosts’ weak defence and the visitors’ clinical form make an Aachen lead at half-time followed by a win in the most likely scenario: 1/1.