Würzburger Kickers vs Stuttgart II: match statistics

Würzburger Kickers have the clearly stronger recent trend: they have collected 7 points from five matches, while Stuttgart II have managed only 3, losing four of their last five fixtures. The hosts are particularly strong at home, where they won their only match so far, scored 4 goals and kept a clean sheet. Stuttgart II average 1.5 goals away from home, but failed to score in 50% of those matches and have not recorded a single clean sheet. The visitors enjoy more possession, 57% compared with 42%, and their average xG stands at 1.50 versus 1.27 for the hosts; however, the finishing edge belongs to Kickers, who convert 40% of their shots compared with 12% for their opponents. Stuttgart II’s defence raises further concerns after conceding 15 goals in their last five matches, so home advantage should tip the result in Würzburg’s favour.

Würzburger Kickers have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, while Stuttgart II have done so in 50%, compared with a league average of 60%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while the hosts concede as many as 3.0 goals per game on average, which clearly increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. Stuttgart II score an average of 1.5 goals and register 6.0 shots on target per match, with their average xG standing at 1.50 compared to the hosts’ 1.68 xG conceded. Over their last five appearances, both teams have shown even stronger attacking signals: they scored 1.8 and 2.0 goals respectively, while BTTS landed in 60% and 80% of their matches. The risk to the pick is that Stuttgart II have failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, but the hosts’ weak defence and the visitors’ 15 goals conceded in their last five matches support a goal from both sides.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as Würzburger have exceeded this line in every match so far, while Stuttgart II have done so in 50% of their games. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, while Stuttgart II’s matches averaged as many as 5.0 goals, with the visitors conceding 15 goals during this period. Stuttgart II have recently averaged 2.0 goals per match, with an xG of 1.83, while Würzburger’s defense allows opponents an average of 1.51 xG. The hosts should also create chances, as their season xG stands at 1.55, while Stuttgart II have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 1.5 goals. The projected total of 2.95 goals also provides a moderate indication for Over 2.5, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer option and the one most strongly supported by the data.

The strongest scenario is for Würzburger Kickers to lead at the break and maintain their winning position, as the hosts were ahead at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Stuttgart II have not led at half-time in any of those games and were behind at the break in 60% of them. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.4 for the visitors, while Stuttgart II conceded as many as 1.4 goals in the first half. The hosts also have the better recent five-match form: 2 wins and 1 draw, compared with just 1 victory for the visitors, who lost 4 of their last 5 matches. The risk of a Stuttgart II turnaround remains significant, as they have recently scored 2.0 goals per match but conceded as many as 3.0; nevertheless, the hosts are more likely to close out the match than there being an away turnaround.