Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

Yanbian Longding sit 5th, while Wuxi Wugou are only 11th, with the visitors suffering just 4 defeats and recording 9 wins over the course of the season. The hosts are in a clear slump, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 3 goals in that run, whereas Yanbian have collected 7 points and scored 8 goals during the same period. Away from home, the visitors win 50% of their matches and average 1.50 goals per game, while their shot conversion rate stands at 19%, compared with Wuxi’s 11% at home. Wuxi do create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.70 and 13.57 shots per match on home soil, but they fail to score in as many as 29% of their home games, which, combined with their poor current form, limits their chances. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the hosts share the points in 43% of their home matches; however, a more consistent season and greater efficiency in front of goal favour the visitors.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are divergent: Wuxi Wugou have seen both teams score in 64% of their matches, but Yanbian Longding in only 40%, well below the league average of 56%. The hosts are currently struggling in attack, scoring just 3 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 0.6 per game—with BTTS occurring in only 20% of those fixtures. Yanbian averaged 1.6 goals over the same period, but away from home they create just 0.89 xG on average and register 3.0 shots on target, which limits confidence in them finding the net. In addition, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their league matches, while Wuxi have failed to score in 27% of their games. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning at least one team—particularly the hosts—is expected to remain scoreless.

The 2.35-goal projection is based on the combination of the home side averaging 1.40 xG with the visitors’ defense allowing 1.26 xG, alongside Yanbian’s less productive attack, which averages only 0.89 xG. Wuxi conceded just 0.82 goals per match this season, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring performance from the away side despite their average of 1.50 goals scored. Matches involving both teams rarely exceed four goals: Under 3.5 landed in 73% of Wuxi’s matches and 70% of Yanbian’s. In addition, Wuxi scored only 3 goals across their last five appearances, or 0.6 per match, further reducing the risk of a very open game. The strongest option remains Under 3.5, as both the season data and the estimated total goals clearly point toward a result of no more than three goals.

The strongest signal points to Yanbian Longding taking the lead by half-time and holding that advantage until the final whistle. Wuxi Wugou have not scored a single first-half goal in their last five matches, have conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break, and went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of those games. Yanbian scored an average of 0.6 first-half goals in their last five outings, while over the course of the season they have averaged 0.9 goals in the first half compared with Wuxi’s 0.55. The visitors are also in better current form: they have scored an average of 1.6 goals per match and won 40% of their last five games, whereas the hosts average just 0.6 goals, have a 20% win rate and have lost 80% of those matches. Although Wuxi usually improve after the break, their poor current attacking output and an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match in their last five games support the 2/2 scenario.