Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

I predict a victory for Flota Świnoujście (2). Flota has won 13 times this season versus only 3 wins for Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal and holds a goal difference of 44–17 in their favor. Away, Flota averages 1.53 goals and attempts 8.75 shots per game (3.42 on target) with a conversion rate of 17%, while Wybrzeże at home scores just 0.53 goals with 6.8 shots (3 on target) and a 3% conversion. Defensively, the hosts concede on average 2.07 goals per home match (70 conceded this season) and have allowed 17 goals in their last 5 games, whereas Flota concedes 1.73 goals away (46 conceded this season) and 10 goals in their last 5 matches. Average xG is 1.10 for Flota versus 0.97 for Wybrzeże, and the hosts fail to score in 60% of home games compared to 13% for Flota, so I assign the probability distribution: home 10%, draw 20%, away 70%.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 53% (Wybrzeże) and 60% (Flota), versus a league average of 52%, which favors a both-teams-to-score outcome. The home side average 1.4 goals scored with xG 1.37, while Flota’s defense concedes xG 1.92 and 1.73 goals on average; this indicates Wybrzeże have realistic chances to score. Flota average 1.53 goals for, and hosts concede 1.33 goals seasonally and have allowed an average of 3.4 goals in their last 5 home matches, increasing the likelihood of an away goal. Additionally, the hosts register more shots on target (5.14 vs 3.42), both teams have only 27% clean sheets, and matches over 2.5 goals occur for the home side in 60% and for Flota in 53%, all confirming a tendency toward Goal/Goal games. Based on this, I select BTTS - Yes as the most likely outcome.

After averaging xG: home attack xG is 1.37 vs xG against the visitors 1.92, implying ~1.64 expected goals for the Home side; away attack xG is 1.10 vs xG against the Home 1.45, implying ~1.28, totaling ~2.92 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a tendency toward matches with at least 2 goals — both teams have 73% of matches Over 1.5 goals each, and the league averages 2.94 goals per game. In the last 5 matches the Home side conceded 17 goals (3.4 per game), while the Away conceded 10 (2.0 per game), which further increases the likelihood of more goals; BTTS rates are 53% and 60% for the two teams. Based on this I estimate Over 1.5 at ~88%, Over 2.5 at ~62% (seasonal: Home 60% / Away 53%), and Over 3.5 at ~34% (seasonal 33%/40%). Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 — the high seasonal frequency of Over 1.5 (73%), the Home side’s poor defense in the last 5 matches (3.4 conceded), and the combined expected xG of 2.92 provide the strongest signal for this line.

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and an away win (X/2) — I assign it a 24% probability. Draws at the break are common: hosts are level at half-time in 38% of matches and visitors in 40%, which strongly supports a Half-Time draw. The second half favors the visitors — they score on average 0.93 goals after the break versus 0.85 for the hosts, and in 93% of matches the visitors score at least one goal after half-time (hosts 77%), so visitors are more often the side to break a Half-Time draw. Over the full match the visitors have a higher win rate, 47% versus 40% for the hosts, and better recent form in the last five games (hosts 0% wins vs visitors 20%), which increases the likelihood of their win after a draw. Although the hosts generate slightly higher xG (1.37 vs 1.10), the visitors make better use of the second half (average second-half points 1.53 vs 1.38 and in the last five second halves 1.4 vs 0.4), hence the selection of X/2.