Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal vs Pogoń Szczecin II: match statistics

Pogoń Szczecin II holds a clear advantage in form and efficiency: they scored 24 goals in the last 5 matches and won 4 of them (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), while Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal conceded 19 goals and lost all last 5 fixtures (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses). This season the visitors have scored 71 goals versus 19 for the hosts; goals per game average is 1.06 for Pogoń away and 0.56 for Rewal at home, and xG stands at 1.37 (away) vs 0.97 (home), confirming the visitors create higher-quality chances. Pogoń averages 10.15 shots away (4 on target) with a conversion rate of 8, while the hosts register 6.8 shots (3 on target) and a conversion of 3, so the visitors generate significantly more goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams have weak defenses — Rewal concedes 2.13 goals at home and Pogoń 2.25 away — and the hosts have 56% of home matches without scoring compared to 44% for Pogoń away, which favors an open, high-scoring game. Considering Rewal’s 0 points in the last 5 matches and Pogoń’s 2.6 pts/match over that period, plus the advantage in shots, conversion and xG, I give the highest probability to a Pogoń Szczecin II victory.

Statistical analysis shows a strong BTTS signal: the home side has a seasonal BTTS rate of 82% versus 50% for the away side, while the league BTTS percentage is 52%. In the last 5 matches the home team conceded on average 3.8 goals (19 conceded in 5), whereas the away team scored on average 4.8 goals (24 scored in 5), which strongly favors Goal/Goal. Additionally, the home team has only 18% clean sheets this season and the away team 6%, and home matches finished over 2.5 goals in 94% of cases (away 75%), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. In xG terms the away team averages 2.09 xG in the last 5 matches versus 0.65 xG for the home team in those same matches, while the home defense conceded 1.39 xG per match in the last 5, which favors away goals. Based on these specific figures (BTTS 82%/50%, clean sheets 18%/6%, last 5: home conceded 3.8 vs away scored 4.8) I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 88%.

I expect around 3.27 goals in the match: 1.86 for Wybrzeże and 1.41 for Pogoń II (calculated from home attack xG 1.70 and xG conceded by the visitors 2.02 for the home side, and respectively 1.37 vs 1.46 for the visitors). Seasonal stats confirm high scoring potential — the hosts score on average 3.18 goals per game and have 94% of matches Over 2.5, while the visitors have 75% such matches and concede 2.25 goals on average. In the last 5 matches the hosts conceded an average of 3.8 goals per game (19 conceded in 5), and the visitors scored an average of 4.8 goals (24 scored in 5), which is a strong signal for goals. Additionally, the hosts have 21% shot conversion with 6.27 shots on target on average, versus 8% and 4.0 for the visitors, which increases the probability of crossing goal thresholds. Therefore the strongest signal is Over and I recommend backing Over 1.5 (I estimate a 94% chance for Over), while Over 2.5 also looks strong (~85%).

Seasonally the home side look better: Wybrzeże scores on average 3.18 goals per match versus Pogoń’s 1.06 and has xG 1.70 versus the visitors’ 1.37, while scoring an average of 1.71 goals by Half-Time compared to Pogoń’s 0.56. However, the last 5 matches reverse this picture — Wybrzeże have 0 wins and 5 losses (100% defeats), averaging 0.8 goals per match and only 0.2 by Half-Time. Pogoń II in their last 5 have 4 wins and 1 draw (80% wins), averaging 4.8 goals per match and 2.0 by Half-Time, and they led at the break in 60% of those games. Since Wybrzeże have been trailing at Half-Time in 100% of their last five matches, the strongest signal is the visitors leading at the break and maintaining the turnaround to win (selection 2/2), hence the highest probability is assigned to this scenario.