Xorazm vs Kokand-1912: match statistics

Xorazm has clear home advantages: they have won 67% of home matches, score an average of 1.33 goals per game (xG 1.02) and concede 1.00 goals per game (xG against 1.18), yielding a +1 goal difference at their stadium. Kokand-1912 have no away wins (0% wins), drew 67% of away fixtures, score only 0.67 goals per game with 1.44 xG and fail to score in 67% of away matches (FTS 67%), indicating finishing issues. The visitors register more shots (12) and more shots on target (4.33) than the hosts (7.33 and 1.67), but Xorazm’s shot conversion is 18% versus Kokand’s 6%, so the home side converts created chances more effectively. In the last 5 matches Xorazm average 1.6 points per game (form: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Kokand average 1.2 points (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss); combined with the home form and the visitors’ finishing problems, this favors a home victory.

The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by Xorazm having 100% home matches with both teams scoring and an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 meetings for both sides. Xorazm concedes an average of 1.33 goals per home game, while Kokand-1912 concedes 1.0 away, so both teams are susceptible to conceding (1.33 vs 1.0). Kokand-1912 generates more chances (12.0 shots and 4.33 on target, xG 1.44) despite a poor season conversion of 6%, so although they average 0.67 goals per game they have realistic potential to score. Xorazm has xG 1.06, 3.67 shots on target and a higher conversion rate of 16%, and additionally has not kept a clean sheet at home yet (0%), which increases the probability of both teams scoring. Considering Xorazm’s 100% BTTS at home, the 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams and the xG and shots ratio (1.44 vs 1.06 xG and 12.0 vs 8.33 shots), I assess BTTS at 75% vs 25% and recommend selecting 'Yes' (Goal/Goal).

I estimate expected goals based on xG: Xorazm xG_for 1.06 and Kokand-1912 xG_for 1.44, with xG_against of 1.28 (Xorazm) and 1.20 (Kokand), yielding a forecast of 1.13 goals for the home side and 1.36 for the away side, i.e. a total of 2.49 goals. With total xG=2.49 the Poisson distribution suggests the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 71% (1 - P(total ≤1) ≈ 0.71). Additional support for Over 1.5 is that Xorazm have 100% of home matches over 1.5 and in the last 5 matches of both teams in 80% of fixtures both teams scored; hosts average 1.33 goals at home with a 16% conversion from 8.33 shots versus Kokand’s 12.0 shots and 6% conversion, which increases the chance of goals. The 2.5 line is more marginal: I estimate the probability of 3+ goals at roughly 45%, which aligns with seasonal shares (Xorazm over 2.5 at home 67%, Kokand 33%, league average 2.41 goals). Over 3.5 I consider unlikely (around 24%), especially as Xorazm have 0% of home matches over 3.5, therefore the best and safest pick is Over 1.5.

Xorazm scores an average of 1.33 goals per match versus 0.67 for Kokand-1912 and displays markedly better shot efficiency (conversion 16.0% vs 6.0%), despite the visitors having higher xG (xG 1.44 vs 1.06 for Xorazm). At Half-Time Xorazm was tied in 3 of 3 home matches (drawingAtHT_home = 3, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0), whereas Kokand never led at the break in any away fixture (leadingAtHT_away = 0.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0.0) and trailed at Half-Time in 67% of cases (trailingAtHTPercentage_away = 67.0). Xorazm is strong after the break — they average 1.0 goal in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.0), registered at least one second-half goal in 100% of matches (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0) and scored 3 goals in minutes 76–90 (goals_scored_min_76_to_90_home = 3), indicating frequent decisive late strikes. Kokand have no away wins (winPercentage_away = 0.0) and a lower share of BTTS away matches (seasonBTTSPercentage_away = 33.0 vs seasonBTTSPercentage_home = 100.0), reducing the likelihood that the visitors will hold or produce a turnaround. Therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time draw with an Xorazm victory after the break (X/1), hence my selection.