Yacoub El Mansour vs CODM Meknès: match statistics

I back a home win for Yacoub El Mansour. The home side averages 1.18 goals per home match versus just 0.4 goals for CODM Meknès on the road; additionally the hosts produce 12.18 average shots and 3.55 shots on target per home game compared to 9.8 and 2 for the visitors, with shot conversion of 10% versus 4%. Home xG is 1.44 at home versus the visitors’ 1.13 on the road, and the goalless rate is 9% for the hosts against 70% for the visitors, which clearly favors the hosts in terms of scoring opportunities. CODM Meknès’ strength is a better away defense (conceding 1.3 goals per away match on average and keeping 30% clean sheets) while the hosts concede 1.64 at home and have only 9% matches without conceding, so the risk of goals for both sides is real. Considering form (points per game in the last 5: hosts 1.0 vs guests 0.8) and the fact both teams have conceded 7 goals in the last 5 matches, I assign 55% probability to the home win, 30% to a draw and 15% to an away win.

Season-long metrics strongly point against BTTS: the away side fails to score in 70% of matches, hosts keep a clean sheet in 58% of games, and seasonal BTTS rates are only 25% for hosts and 30% for visitors. The difference in average goals is significant — hosts score 0.92 goals per match versus 0.4 for away teams, despite similar xG (1.10 vs 1.13), indicating visitors are wasting chances. Shooting stats reinforce this picture: hosts average 2.92 shots on target with a 10% conversion rate, while visitors average 2.0 shots on target with only 4% conversion, so realistic scoring opportunities for the away side are limited. Although hosts have 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches and visitors 40%, both teams concede on average 1.4 goals across those five games, so the short-term signal does not offset the season-long FTS 70% for visitors. Consequently I project No BTTS as more likely: no 75% vs yes 25%, because 70% of matches without an away goal and 58% home clean sheets outweigh isolated short-term deviations.

The combined xG for both teams is 1.10 (Yacoub) + 1.13 (CODM) = 2.23, and including xG against (1.37 vs 1.30) yields a raw xG model of about 1.20 for the home side and 1.25 for the away side (total ~2.45). However, CODM scores only 0.40 goals per match on a seasonal basis despite an xG of 1.13 (difference 0.73) and has a very low shot conversion rate of 4% versus 10% for the home team, which implies a discount relative to raw xG. After adjusting for this effect I forecast 1.20 goals for Yacoub El Mansour and 0.95 for CODM, totaling 2.15 goals, which is close to the league average of 2.16. In practice this generates a strong signal for Over 1.5 (estimated ~63%), while Over 2.5 looks less attractive (~36%) and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~17%), supported by seasonal Over 2.5 rates: 17% for the home side and 30% for the away side, and a low frequency of Over 3.5 (8–10%).

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 67% of their matches and the visitors in 60%, so HT is most likely a draw. By full-time the advantage should lie with the hosts — they have 58% wins this season versus 10% for the visitors and average 1.92 points per match compared with the opponents’ 0.7. In the second half the home team scores on average 0.58 goals and wins second halves in 42% of cases, while the visitors register only 0.3 goals after the break and win 10% of second halves. Both teams’ xG is similar (1.10 for the hosts vs 1.13 for the guests), but the hosts have better shot conversion (10% vs 4%) and more shots on target (2.92 vs 2.00), which increases the likelihood of a decisive goal after the break. Therefore the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) assessed at 40%, with alternatives being draw/draw 20% and home leading from HT to FT 14%.