Yacoub El Mansour vs Hassania Agadir: match statistics

Yacoub El Mansour holds a slight edge, so I back 1. The hosts average 12 shots per match and 3.58 on target with an average xG of 1.43, while Hassania Agadir averages 7.92 shots and xG 1.06 away. At home the hosts score 1.17 goals on average and fail to score in only 8% of matches, whereas the visitors score 1.00 away and fail to score in 33% of games. Defensively both teams concede 1.58 goals per match, but the visitors are a bit more efficient (conversion 13% vs 10%) and have 25% clean sheets on the road versus 8% for the hosts. Despite the visitors’ better recent form over the last 5 (1.4 pts vs 0.8 pts), the hosts’ higher xG and shot volume imply a slight favoritism toward Yacoub El Mansour, hence the probability split 45/30/25.

I pick the 'Yes' scenario (BTTS - Yes) because the home side had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, while the visitors only in 40% of their last 5, which gives a strong home-form signal. Season-long indicators are moderate: hosts have a season BTTS rate of 42% vs 50% for the visitors with a league average of 51%, so the season alone is not decisive, but the hosts' recent form shifts the balance toward both teams scoring. Goal and xG stats confirm this — hosts have scored 25 and conceded 38 goals this season (0.92 scored, 1.17 conceded), visitors 23 scored and 33 conceded (1.00 scored, 1.58 conceded); in the last 5 matches hosts conceded on average 1.6, visitors 1.2, and both teams' xG over the last 5 is around 1.2. Low clean sheet rates (33% vs 25%), average shots on target 3.0 vs 3.42 and shot conversion 10% vs 13% show that chances are being created by both sides, so I rate BTTS at 60% vs 40% for No Goal.

Based on xG: the home side have xG_for 1.20, the visitors xG_for 1.06, while opponents’ defenses concede xG_against 1.27 (away) and 1.23 (home), yielding expected 1.24 for Yacoub El Mansour and 1.14 for Hassania Agadir, totaling ~2.38 goals. Seasonal figures confirm moderate attacking efficiency and defensive vulnerabilities: home scored 25 and conceded 38, visitors 23–33; home average shots 9.08 with 10% conversion, visitors 7.92 shots with 13% conversion. Both teams show a high share of matches with ≥2 goals: Over 1.5 at 67% (home) and 75% (away), and a Poisson model with µ=2.38 gives P(>=2) ≈69–70%, so Over 1.5 is likely. Over 2.5 is less certain – season rates 42% vs 58%, and Poisson with µ=2.38 gives P(>=3) ≈43%, implying an edge for Under 2.5 (~57%). Seasonally Over 3.5 is rare (8% home, 25% away), and Poisson shows P(>=4) ≈22%, hence Under 3.5 (~78%) is the strongest and safest play.

I forecast a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1). The home side drew at the break in 42% of their home matches, while the visitors did so in 50% of their away games — averaging roughly a 46% probability of a half-time draw. Despite that, the home team has the edge in key metrics: home xG 1.20 versus visitors’ 1.06, average 1.25 points per home match versus 1.00 points per away match for the visitors, and 33% home wins compared to the opponents’ 25% away wins. The hosts score on average 0.58 goals before the break versus 0.33 for the visitors and led at the break in 17% of matches (visitors only 8%), while the visitors conceded 5 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 conceded by the hosts, indicating opponent vulnerability late on. For these reasons I combine the high share of half-time draws (~46%) with the post-break advantage for the home side and assign the X/1 scenario the greatest weight (about 25% in the distribution).