Yanbian Longding vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

Yanbian Longding sit 4th, while Dalian Huayi are only 13th, with the hosts recording 7 wins and just 3 defeats this season. At home, Yanbian concede an average of only 0.8 goals per match, whereas Dalian allow opponents 1.75 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. The hosts also create higher-quality chances: their average xG stands at 1.46, with an xG against of 1.01, while the corresponding figures for the visitors are 1.41 and 1.68. Dalian lose 75% of their away matches and have a conversion rate of only 8%, compared with Yanbian’s 11% and an average of 4.6 shots on target per match, versus 2.75 for their opponents. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as 60% of Yanbian’s home matches end level, but the hosts’ defensive superiority and home advantage point towards a Yanbian victory.

Seasonal BTTS figures are elevated for both sides: Yanbian Longding stand at 67%, while Dalian Huayi are at 63%, compared with the league average of 55%. The hosts score an average of 1.56 goals, while the visitors concede as many as 1.75, and Dalian have kept no clean sheets this season, which strongly supports a Yanbian goal. The visitors do average just 1.00 goal scored per match and failed to score in 38% of their fixtures, but their current xG stands at 1.52, while Yanbian have allowed opponents an xG of 0.83 across their last five matches. Recent form is less conclusive, as BTTS landed in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches but in only 40% of Dalian’s games. Despite this caution, the visitors’ poor seasonal defensive record and both teams’ regular chance creation give moderate support to the Goal/Goal scenario.

Yanbian Longding score an average of 1.56 goals at home, while Dalian Huayi concede 1.75 away from home, clearly supporting around 1.5 goals for the hosts. However, the visitors’ attacking potential is limited by Yanbian’s strong current defensive form: across their last five matches, the team conceded only 0.8 goals per game, with an average xG allowed of 0.83. Over the same period, both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their matches, while their respective total goal tallies stood at 10 and 11 in five appearances. On a season-long basis, the Under 3.5 goals line landed in 67% of Yanbian’s matches and 75% of Dalian’s, while games featuring at least four goals accounted for only 33% and 25%, respectively. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the data points to a realistic 2–3-goal outcome but limited grounds for an open, high-scoring game with four goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Yanbian Longding were level after 45 minutes in 78% of their matches, while their average first-half goal total is just 1.78. After the interval, however, the hosts should exploit their attacking advantage: they score an average of 1.56 goals per home match, whereas Dalian Huayi concede 1.75 goals on the road. Yanbian’s potential is further supported by an xG of 1.42 and 3.89 shots on target per match, compared with the 1.68 xG that the visitors concede on average. Dalian score just 0.25 goals per match after half-time and have failed to keep a clean sheet in any away fixture, making the HT/FT draw/home win outcome the strongest signal.