Yantra 2019 vs Spartak Pleven: match statistics

Analysis of the last 5 matches indicates a home advantage for Yantra 2019: over that span they scored 6 goals and conceded 3, while Spartak Pleven scored 9 and conceded 8. Yantra recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (wdwwl) and averages 2 points per game in those five fixtures, whereas Spartak has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (dlwwl) and averages 1.4 points per game. Goal difference in the last 5 matches is +3 for the hosts (6-3) versus +1 for the visitors (9-8), which demonstrates Yantra is more stable, particularly defensively. Lack of detailed shot or xG data makes assessment of chance quality harder, but the substantial disparity in goals conceded (3 vs 8) and higher average points (2 vs 1.4) favor the hosts. Based on this, I forecast a home win and propose probability distribution: home 58%, draw 22%, away 20%.

Seasonal data are incomplete (all season values = 0), so the analysis is based on form from the last 5 matches. In the last 5 fixtures the BTTS rate was 40% for Yantra 2019 (2 of 5) and 80% for Spartak Pleven (4 of 5), giving a simple average of 60%. Yantra scored on average 1.2 and conceded 0.6 goals in the last 5, while Spartak scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6, which together suggests roughly 3.0 goals per match (1.2+1.8). xG from the last 5 matches is 1.15 offensively and 1.31 defensively for Yantra, and 1.27 offensively and 1.54 defensively for Spartak, meaning both teams produce and allow above ~1.1 xG per match, which favors both teams scoring. Given Spartak’s high BTTS rate (80%), the combined goals average of 3.0 and positive xG for both sides, I assign 65% to BTTS - Yes and 35% to No, therefore I recommend the 'yes' pick, although Yantra’s low 0.6 goals conceded reduces the risk of them conceding a goal.

In the last 5 matches Yantra 2019 scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and Spartak Pleven 9 goals (1.8 per match), yielding a combined 3.0 goals per game. xG over the last 5 games is 1.15 for Yantra’s attack and 1.27 for Spartak’s attack, with xG against at 1.31 for the home side and 1.54 for the visitors. Averaging one team’s attack with the other’s defense gives 1.35 xG for the home team and 1.29 xG for the away team, i.e. about 2.64 expected goals in total. At this level the model indicates ~74% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Spartak had 80% of matches with both teams scoring in the last 5 games versus 40% for Yantra, and concedes on average 1.6 goals per match compared to 0.6 for Yantra, which further supports a bet on Over 1.5.

The hosts led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), scoring an average of 0.6 goals by half‑time while conceding 0.0 in the first half. The visitors are the higher-scoring side overall (1.8 goals per match versus 1.2 for the hosts) and average 1.0 goal by half‑time, but they were leading at the break in only 1 of their 5 games (20%), so they are rarely in front at the break. Over the full 90 minutes recent form favors Yantra: 2.0 points per game in the last 5 versus 1.4 for Spartak and 60% home wins versus 40% for the away side, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead to full‑time. The countervailing risk is the second half — visitors average 1.6 goals after the break compared with 1.2 for the hosts — hence a moderate probability of an equalizer or a turnaround (e.g. X/1 15% and X/X 10%). For these reasons I rate 1/1 (hosts leading at half‑time and winning Full‑Time) as the strongest signal, assigning it the highest probability (38%).