Yantra 2019 vs Sportist Svoge: match statistics

Yantra 2019 have the home advantage: they average 1.94 xG and 15 shots per match, while Sportist Svoge average 1.20 xG and 11 attempts away from home. The hosts score 1.5 goals per home game, but their defence remains a concern, conceding an average of 2 goals and yet to keep a clean sheet. Sportist Svoge have conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches and kept a clean sheet in their most recent away appearance, which significantly increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. On the other hand, the visitors have failed to score in any of their away matches so far, recording no goals in 100% of such fixtures. Yantra’s superior chance quality and Sportist’s attacking limitations point towards a narrow home win, although a draw remains a very realistic alternative.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Sportist Svoge: according to the season data, they have yet to score a goal, and their percentage of matches without scoring stands at 100%. The visitors have also kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, while Yantra score only 1.0 goal per game on average. In their last five appearances, Sportist averaged 0.8 goals and recorded BTTS in just 20% of matches, clearly below the 47% league-wide figure. Yantra have conceded 1.6 goals per game recently, but the visitors’ solid defensive record, allowing only 0.6 goals per match during this period, increases the likelihood that the hosts will also fail to score. Although the visitors’ xG from their last five matches stands at 1.47, their finishing record to date and overall match profile still point more strongly towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The model expects a total of 2.50 goals, with a projected 1.28 for Yantra and 1.22 for Sportist Svoge. In their last five matches, Yantra averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Svoge averaged 0.8 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded. However, the situational potential is not negligible, as the average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.42 for Yantra and 1.47 for Svoge. This points to at least two goals, but not an open, high-scoring game. On a season-long basis, 67% of Yantra’s matches and 100% of Svoge’s ended with Under 3.5 goals, giving the under 3.5 market a clearer edge than the lower goal lines.

The strongest signal is a cautious first half: Sportist Svoge have been level at half-time in 100% of their matches so far, while Yantra have done so in 3 of 3 league games. The visitors have yet to score either before half-time or at any point this season, while also recording a 100% clean-sheet rate, which strongly supports a low-scoring first half and a draw after 45 minutes. Yantra have averaged just 0.33 goals before the break, while in Sportist’s last five matches, the hosts have scored only 0.2 goals in this period and kept a clean sheet in 80% of them. After the restart, however, the hosts have been more vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 1.2 goals recently, but the visitors have scored only 0.6. Therefore, a final draw remains marginally the most likely outcome following a goalless start. Yantra’s xG advantage is only 1.31 to 1.20, which is not sufficient to strongly favour an away win.