Yelimay Semey vs Astana: match statistics
Yelimay Semey vs Astana: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Yelimay Semey played Astana in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Yelimay Semey: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Astana: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Yelimay Semey scores 1.60 and concedes 0.60 goals per match. Astana scores 1.40 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.15 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Yelimay Semey 60%, Astana 40%. Over 2.5: Yelimay Semey 20%, Astana 40%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Yelimay Semey has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.50. Yelimay Semey: 13.2 shots per match, Astana: 12.6.
Match halves
Yelimay Semey: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 1.20. Astana: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.60.
Goals by minute
Yelimay Semey: 76-90+ (4 goals). Astana: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.15 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Yelimay Semey sit 2nd in the table with a 3-2-0 record this season, scoring 8 and conceding 3, while Astana are 7th with a 2-2-1 record, 7 goals for and 6 against. In their last 5 matches the hosts have scored 11 goals, won 4 of 5 and average 2.6 points per game, whereas Astana have 5 goals, 2 wins and average 1.6 points in the same period. At home Yelimay average 1.0 goals and 0.5 conceded with xG for 1.4 and xG against 1.19, 50% clean sheets and 0% defeats; the visitors away average 0.0 goals and 2.0 conceded with xG for 1.11 and xG against 1.37 and 0% away wins. Shooting stats show a hosts’ volume advantage in attempts (12.5 vs 9.5) and a solid 3.5 shots on target versus Astana’s 4.5, but the decisive factor is the visitors’ poor efficiency — away conversion listed as 0% and 100% of away matches without a goal. Considering Yelimay’s flawless home run (0 defeats, 11 goals in 5 matches) and Astana’s significant finishing issues away from home, I forecast a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Yelimay has a significantly stronger attack: averaging 2.33 goals per match and xG 1.76, with 14.67 shots and 7.0 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 16.0%. Astana averages 0.0 goals per match seasonally, but in the last 5 matches scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and has a recent xG_for of 1.52, while conceding on average 2.0 goals per match seasonally. Season BTTS rate for Yelimay is 67% (last 5: 60%) versus 0% seasonally for Astana (last 5: 40%) with a league BTTS average of 50%, which gives mixed signals but an edge to the home side. xG comparison shows Yelimay xG_for 1.76 vs Astana xG_against 1.37 and Astana xG_for 1.11 vs Yelimay xG_against 0.99, suggesting both teams create chances and have realistic scoring opportunities. For these reasons I rate BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal: 70% vs 30% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects a total of 2.62 goals (home xG 1.76 vs. Astana's conceded xG 1.37 → forecast 1.57 for Yelimay; Astana xG 1.11 vs. hosts' conceded xG 0.99 → forecast 1.05 for Astana). Hosts average 2.33 goals per game (last 5: 2.2) and register 14.7 shots with 7.0 on target, while visitors have 1.0 goals in the last 5 matches and 9.5 shots with 4.5 on target. Under a Poisson distribution with λ=2.62 the probability of Over 1.5 is ~74% (1−P(0)−P(1)), Over 2.5 ~49%, and Over 3.5 ~27%. Additionally, the hosts have 67% of matches with both teams scoring this season, which increases the chance of at least two goals. As a result, the strongest and best-justified signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Yelimay Semey holds a clear advantage: they score an average of 2.33 goals per match and concede 0.67, while Astana have 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on the road. At half-time the hosts led in 2 of the 3 matches so far (67%), and the hosts’ mean goals by the break are 1.33 versus 0.0 for the visitors, suggesting a high probability of a lead at the break. Offensive metrics further confirm the edge: xG 1.76 for Yelimay versus 1.11 for Astana, 7.0 shots on target versus 4.5 and conversion 16% versus 0%, so the hosts create and convert more chances. Additionally, Yelimay score early (1 goal in 0–15 and 2 goals in 16–30), therefore the strongest scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time 1/1 (lead at the break and home win), with a draw to the end (X/X) as the only significant alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Yelimay Semey | Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 48% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Yelimay Semey is 38% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.6 pts / match - Astana
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Yelimay Semey is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.6 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.4 goals / match - Astana
Yelimay Semey is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.6 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.2 goals / match - Astana
Yelimay Semey scores in 100% of matches (5 of 5 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
Astana scores in 60% of matches (3 of 5 matches), while Yelimay Semey keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Yelimay Semey
Over / Under - Astana
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Yelimay Semey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Yelimay Semey
Astana
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Yelimay Semey | Liga | Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.20 | 2.15 | ▲ 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 51% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 34% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 32% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | • 60% | 59% | • 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Yelimay Semey 0 - 1 - 1 Astana. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Yelimay Semey vs Astana?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Yelimay Semey 2:2 Astana. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Yelimay Semey and Astana?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Yelimay Semey won 0, Astana won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Yelimay Semey vs Astana?
Yelimay Semey score 1.60 goals per game on average and Astana 1.40. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.15 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Yelimay Semey's matches and 40% of Astana's.
What form are Yelimay Semey and Astana in?
Over the last 5 games Yelimay Semey have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Astana 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Yelimay Semey vs Astana?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.