Yelimay Semey vs Tobol: match statistics
Yelimay Semey vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Yelimay Semey play Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 4 April 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Yelimay Semey: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Yelimay Semey scores 1.47 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Yelimay Semey 65%, Tobol 61%. Over 2.5: Yelimay Semey 53%, Tobol 50%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Yelimay Semey has higher xG: 1.63 vs 1.55. Yelimay Semey: 14.2 shots per match, Tobol: 13.3.
Match halves
Yelimay Semey: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.94. Tobol: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Yelimay Semey: 76-90+ (8 goals). Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Yelimay Semey holds a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 13 shots per match, including 5 on target, with 58% possession and an average xG of 1.54 versus Tobol’s 1.09 xG. Tobol have serious defensive and finishing issues away from home: they concede 3.0 goals per away match on average, their xG against is 1.86, they score only 0.5 goals per away game and have 50% of away matches without a goal. Form gap is also significant — in the last 5 matches Yelimay scored 15 goals and averages 2.2 points per game (3 wins, 2 draws), while Tobol scored 7, conceded 12 and average just 0.6 points per game (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Additionally, the home side are unbeaten at home (0% defeats) and have never failed to score at home (0% matches without a goal), whereas the visitors show 100% defeats away in the provided stats and a negative away goal difference of -5. Given the superiority in quality of chances, better xG and Tobol’s clear defensive problems, I predict a home win, although a draw is possible due to Yelimay’s previous home draws.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Yelimay Semey | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tobol is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.4 pts / match - Tobol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Yelimay Semey is 32% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.11 goals / match - Tobol
Yelimay Semey is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.44 goals / match - Tobol
Yelimay Semey scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Yelimay Semey keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Yelimay Semey
Over / Under — Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Yelimay Semey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Yelimay Semey
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Yelimay Semey | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.76 | 2.31 | ▲ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 52% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 42% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 29% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 62% | • 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Yelimay Semey 0 - 1 - 1 Tobol. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Yelimay Semey vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Yelimay Semey 1:0 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Yelimay Semey and Tobol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Yelimay Semey won 0, Tobol won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Yelimay Semey vs Tobol?
Yelimay Semey score 1.47 goals per game on average and Tobol 1.11. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Yelimay Semey's matches and 61% of Tobol's.
What form are Yelimay Semey and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Yelimay Semey have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Tobol 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Yelimay Semey vs Tobol?
The statistical background for Yelimay Semey vs Tobol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.