Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys: match statistics
Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Yelimay Semey played Zhenys in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 23 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Yelimay Semey: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Zhenys: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Yelimay Semey scores 1.40 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Zhenys scores 0.80 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Yelimay Semey 60%, Zhenys 40%. Over 2.5: Yelimay Semey 40%, Zhenys 30%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Yelimay Semey has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.15. Yelimay Semey: 14.9 shots per match, Zhenys: 9.5.
Match halves
Yelimay Semey: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.90. Zhenys: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
Yelimay Semey: 76-90+ (5 goals). Zhenys: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a draw because both teams present conflicting strengths and comparable chances. Zhenys has won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 10 goals in that period, averaging 2.4 points per game across the last five, while Yelimay has failed to win in the last 5, scoring only 5 goals and averaging 0.4 points per game. The home side creates more chances – their average xG in home matches is 1.74 with 16.25 shots and 4.25 shots on target, and their home goals average is 1.0, but a low conversion rate of 6% limits their efficiency. The visitors have greater possession (56% vs 51%) and decent form, but fail to score in 60% of away games and average only 0.8 goals per away match, which offsets their advantages. Both teams have similar xG against (1.17 for the home side vs 1.15 for the visitors) and therefore I expect a tightly contested game with a draw being the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rate for both teams stands at 40% each (home 40%, away 40%), below the league average of 51%, which seasonally suggests a lower probability of both teams scoring. However, in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%, and the away side scored 10 goals in those 5 games (2.0 avg) with an xG of 1.38 and 3.4 shots on target, which significantly increases their chances of scoring. The hosts in their last 5 matches have scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and conceded 8 goals (1.6 avg), and their season-long xG against is 1.38 versus an offensive xG of 1.09, indicating defensive vulnerability despite moderate chance creation. Additionally, the away team has won 4 of their last 5 matches (form “wwwwl”), while the home team are in poorer form (form “dllld”), so the combination of 60% BTTS in the last 5, 2.0 goals/last5 for the away side and 1.6 conceded/last5 for the hosts outweighs the seasonal 40% rate and leads to a preference for BTTS = Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals by combining team xG and xG against: home xG 1.09 vs away xG 1.21, and xG against opponents 1.38 (home) and 1.15 (away), yielding a forecast of 1.12 goals for Yelimay and 1.30 goals for Zhenys, total 2.42 goals. Treating 2.42 as the mean in a Poisson distribution, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 70% (1 − P(≤1) ≈ 69.6%), and at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 44% (hence adopting ~46% after adjusting for form). Supporting a higher outcome is Zhenys’ form: 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per match) and Yelimay 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0 per match); both teams have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches. Seasonal stats show Over 1.5 at 60% for both teams, but the home side has only 20% of matches Over 2.5 and 0% Over 3.5, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, Over) with the highest probability ~70%, while Over 2.5 is moderate (~46%) and Over 3.5 has low chances (~23%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time with an away win at full-time (X/2). Both teams had a half-time draw in 60% of their matches (60% for the home side and 60% for the away side), and the visitors won 60% of their season’s matches, yielding a multiplicative baseline of roughly 36% (0.6*0.6) and justifying assigning 38% to X/2. Additionally, the visitors’ form is substantially stronger: in their last five matches they have an 80% win rate and average 2.4 points per game versus the hosts’ 0% wins and 0.4 points per game, which increases their chances after the break. xG and shot metrics also favor the visitors: average xG for the away team is 1.21 versus 1.09 for the home team, xG conceded by the hosts is 1.38 versus 1.15 for the visitors, and shots on target are 3.4 vs 2.6; while the hosts did lead at the break in 40% of matches, recent form and xG tilt the advantage to the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Yelimay Semey | Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Zhenys is 233% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Yelimay Semey · 2 pts / match - Zhenys
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Yelimay Semey is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 0.8 goals / match - Zhenys
Yelimay Semey is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.2 goals / match - Zhenys
Yelimay Semey scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Zhenys keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 matches).
Zhenys scores in 60% of matches (6 of 10 matches), while Yelimay Semey keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Yelimay Semey
Over / Under - Zhenys
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Yelimay Semey is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Yelimay Semey · 1.2 pts / match - Zhenys
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Yelimay Semey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 30%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Zhenys - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Yelimay Semey
Zhenys
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Yelimay Semey | Liga | Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.50 | 2.09 | • 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 49% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 38% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 31% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 68% | ▲ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Yelimay Semey 1 - 0 - 1 Zhenys. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Yelimay Semey 2:1 Zhenys. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Yelimay Semey and Zhenys?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Yelimay Semey won 1, Zhenys won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys?
Yelimay Semey score 1.40 goals per game on average and Zhenys 0.80. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Yelimay Semey's matches and 40% of Zhenys's.
What form are Yelimay Semey and Zhenys in?
Over the last 5 games Yelimay Semey have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Zhenys 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys?
The statistical background for Yelimay Semey vs Zhenys — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.