Yeovil Town vs Tamworth: match statistics

Yeovil Town remain unbeaten at home, recording 1 win and 1 draw, while Tamworth have failed to win either of their two away fixtures. The hosts average 2 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded on home soil, whereas Tamworth concede as many as 3.5 goals per away match. Yeovil’s advantage is also evident in their defensive performance: their average xG conceded stands at 1.01, compared with 1.93 for the visitors. Tamworth can still pose a threat, averaging 2 goals scored away from home and netting 11 times in their last five matches, but their defence has also conceded 11 goals during that period. Yeovil also exercise greater control in home games, averaging 50% possession compared with Tamworth’s 36% away from home. Therefore, the hosts are the favourites, although a goal from the visitors remains a realistic possibility.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: in the current competition, both Yeovil and Tamworth recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, with a 0% rate of games without scoring and without a clean sheet. Yeovil average 1.0 goal, while Tamworth concede as many as 3.5 goals per match, and the hosts create a high average xG of 1.90 while registering 6.0 shots on target per game. The visitors are an attacking threat, averaging 2.0 goals and 2.0 goals across the season, while in their last five matches they raised that average to 2.2 goals with an xG of 1.84. Yeovil’s defence also offers no complete guarantee, having conceded 1.8 goals per match in their last five appearances, while Tamworth scored in each of those games. Even despite Yeovil’s lower efficiency, the hosts’ 60% BTTS rate in their last five matches compared with Tamworth’s 100%, along with the high level of chances at both ends, strongly supports the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The match profile clearly points towards goals: in their last five games, Yeovil conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Tamworth conceded as many as 2.2. Tamworth scored 2.2 goals per game during this period, compared with 1.2 for the hosts, providing a basis for a forecast of 3.25 total goals. Both teams have seen both sides score in 100% of their matches so far this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet. The Over 2.5 goals line landed in 60% of Yeovil’s and 80% of Tamworth’s last five games, compared with a league average of 64%. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of weak defences and the hosts’ xG of 1.90 against Tamworth’s 1.93 xG conceded makes a one-goal-or-fewer scenario highly unlikely.

Yeovil have a clear advantage in chance creation: their average xG is 1.90 compared with Tamworth’s 1.27, while the hosts average 17 shots and 6 on target, compared with the visitors’ 11.5 and 4.5. Tamworth’s defence concedes an average of 3.5 goals per match, and the team has conceded 2.2 goals per game across its last five fixtures, which supports a Yeovil win. In the first halves of their last five matches, the hosts were leading on 40% of occasions, while Tamworth led in only 20% and conceded an average of 1.6 goals before the break. Both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their available league matches this season, so the likelihood of a turnaround is also high; however, Yeovil’s superior chance quality points to the hosts taking the lead at the break and maintaining it through to full time. The 1/1 scenario is the strongest, although the small sample size means that a draw or a turnaround must still be assigned significant probability.