Yeovil Town vs Worthing: match statistics

Yeovil Town have the home advantage: they have won 60% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals with 54% possession. The hosts also create slightly better-quality chances, with an average home xG of 1.51 compared with Worthing’s 1.35 away from home. Worthing are dangerous offensively, however, scoring an average of 2.5 goals away and converting 25% of their shots, while losing only once in their last five matches. The key factor could be the visitors’ defence, which concedes 2 goals per away match and allows opponents an xG of 2.06, while Yeovil have failed to score in none of their home matches. Both teams find the net regularly, but Yeovil’s greater control and Worthing’s defensive weaknesses point to a narrow home win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: Worthing have recorded BTTS in 100% of their league matches, while Yeovil Town have done so in 60%, against a league average of 66%. Both sides have scored at least one goal in every match this season, while Worthing have kept no clean sheets, significantly increasing the likelihood of the hosts finding the net. BTTS landed in 100% of Yeovil’s and 80% of Worthing’s last five matches, with the teams averaging 2.2 and 2.0 goals scored, respectively. The defences have also allowed plenty of chances, as Yeovil conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five appearances, compared with 1.6 for Worthing. The hosts have a season xG of 1.62, while the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals and allow opponents an xG of 2.06. Therefore, the most likely scenario is BTTS - Yes.

The match profile clearly favors goals: Worthing score an average of 2.5 goals per game, and 100% of their matches have gone over both 1.5 and 2.5 goals. Yeovil concede an average of 1.4 goals, while Worthing’s defense allows an average of 2.0 goals and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Yeovil averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, while Worthing averaged 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded; both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 80% of those matches. The xG model also points to an open game, with the hosts creating an average of 1.62 xG against 2.06 xG allowed by the visitors, while the visitors produce 1.35 xG compared with 1.43 xG conceded by the hosts. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the expected total of 3.15 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if finishing efficiency drops partially.

Worthing has the stronger results profile: they win 50% of their matches, average 2.5 goals scored, and have netted 2.0 goals per game across their last five, while Yeovil conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match during that period. The visitors often start aggressively, having led at the break in 75% of their matches this season, with that figure rising to 80% in their last five appearances; Yeovil led at half-time in 80% and 60% of matches, respectively. After the break, Worthing average 1.75 goals, and each of their five second halves to date has produced at least one goal, supporting a scenario in which they maintain or extend their lead. Yeovil possess attacking arguments in the form of an xG of 1.62 and six shots on target per match, but Worthing's defence has kept no clean sheets, so the 2/2 scenario remains the most likely, albeit without a significant margin over the other options.