Yongin City vs Busan I'Park: match statistics

Busan I'Park are 3rd in the table, while Yongin City sit as low as 13th. Across the season, the visitors have recorded 11 wins and 5 losses, compared with just 3 wins for the hosts. Busan average 2.0 goals per game away from home and win 56% of their away fixtures, whereas Yongin have won only 10% of their home matches. The visitors create significantly more chances, averaging 14.11 shots and 4.67 shots on target per match, compared with 7.6 and 3.1 for the hosts. Yongin have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 9. Combined with their average of 1.6 goals conceded at home, this gives Busan a favourable reference point. The visitors’ defence is not impenetrable either, as they concede 1.67 goals per away match, so the hosts have a realistic chance of scoring. However, Busan’s superior attacking quality and significantly stronger season make them the clear side to back for the win.

Seasonal BTTS figures are notably high: Yongin City has recorded BTTS in 70% of its matches, while Busan I'Park stands at 78%, compared with 64% across the league. Both sides also possess solid attacking potential, averaging 1.9 and 2.0 goals per match, with average xG of 1.38 and 1.65, respectively. Particularly encouraging for the away goal is the fact that Yongin City has conceded an average of 1.8 goals in its last 5 matches, while Busan averages 4.67 shots on target per game. The main risk to the pick is the hosts' weaker recent finishing, having scored just 4 goals in 5 matches and recorded BTTS in 60% of those games; however, Busan has kept a clean sheet in only 11% of its matches this season. Overall, the data still points more strongly towards a scenario in which each team scores at least one goal.

The season profiles of both teams favor goals: Yongin City score an average of 1.9 goals, while Busan I'Park average 2.0, with the visitors conceding as many as 1.67 goals per match. Average xG figures indicate potential of around 1.38 for the hosts and 1.65 for the visitors, while the defenses allow 1.54 and 1.65 xG, respectively. At least 2 goals were scored in 90% of Yongin City’s matches and 78% of Busan’s fixtures, while both teams scored in 70% and 78% of their respective matches. The hosts’ recent form is weaker, as they have scored only 4 goals in their last five appearances, but they have also conceded 9, which still creates favorable conditions for Busan goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as even with the more cautious projection of 2.75 goals, the two-goal line has a clearly higher probability.

Busan I'Park are showing clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals and won 40% of their games, while Yongin City have scored just 0.8 goals, failed to win any match and conceded an average of 1.8. The first-half pattern is particularly significant: the hosts were trailing at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, while the visitors were leading at half-time in 40%, with Busan averaging 0.6 goals scored compared with Yongin’s 0.2. Across the season, Busan average 2.0 goals per match, while Yongin’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.54, which also favours the visitors after taking the lead. The visitors are also highly active in the closing stages, scoring 7 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, making a lead at the break followed by a victory at the final whistle the most likely outcome: X/2.