Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

Yunnan Yukun win 62% of their home matches, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have won just 23% of their away games, clearly favouring the hosts. At home, Yunnan average 2.38 goals and 5.54 shots on target per match; away, the visitors average 0.77 goals and 2.85 shots on target. The hosts’ advantage in chance quality is reflected in their home xG of 1.79, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 0.87. Chongqing have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 3 goals in that run, whereas Yunnan have won twice and scored 10. However, the hosts have conceded as many as 16 goals in their last five matches, so their defensive problems leave their opponents with a chance to spring a surprise.

Yunnan Yukun have recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches, compared with 46% for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so the season data do not provide a clear-cut signal. The biggest obstacle to both teams scoring is the visitors’ attack: they average 0.77 goals per match and have failed to score in 38% of their games, while the hosts have been held scoreless in just 14%. The visitors also average 2.85 shots on target, compared with 3.57 for the hosts, and their xG stands at 0.87 versus 1.21 for Yunnan. The main risk to a BTTS - No pick is the hosts’ defence, which has conceded an average of 3.2 goals over their last five matches; however, Chongqing have scored just 3 goals over that span. Therefore, it is slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this line was not exceeded in 71% of Yunnan Yukun matches and 77% of Chongqing Tongliang Long matches. The visitors average 0.77 goals per match and have failed to score in 38% of their games, limiting their contribution to a potential high-scoring exchange. The hosts have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.29 goals and 1.21 xG, while their opponents concede an average of 1.62 xG. The main risk to this prediction is Yunnan Yukun’s recent defensive form—they have conceded 16 goals in 5 matches—although Chongqing scored just 3 goals over the same period. Therefore, despite the possibility of a few goals, the projected total of 2.35 goals supports backing Under 3.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Yunnan Yukun were level at the break in 57% of their matches, compared with 46% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Both teams rarely score before half-time—the hosts failed to score in 71% of matches, while the visitors did so in 77%. After the break, the balance shifts in Yunnan’s favor, with the team averaging 0.86 goals in the second half compared with Chongqing’s 0.38. The gap was even wider across the last five matches: the hosts averaged 1.4 goals after half-time, while the visitors averaged 0.4, making a half-time draw followed by a Yunnan win the strongest single HT/FT scenario. However, confidence in this pick is tempered by the hosts’ defense, which conceded an average of 3.2 goals per match over their last five outings.