Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye: match statistics

Yunnan Yukun has an offensive edge at home: on average 2.0 goals per match and xG 1.75 with 16 shots and 5.43 on target, while Henan Jianye averages 1.0 goals away with xG 1.05 and 8.5 shots and 3.0 on target. Additionally, Yunnan sits 5th in the table versus Henan’s 13th, supporting the hosts’ quality this season. Defensively the hosts are unstable — Yunnan concedes 1.71 goals at home on average and as many as 10 goals in the last 5 matches, while Henan concedes 1.25 away and 6 goals in the same period. Form over the last 5 matches slightly favors the visitors: Henan has won 3 of the last 5 and averages 1.8 points per game, whereas Yunnan has only 1 win and 1.0 point per game. Despite the visitors’ better recent run, the key metrics are quality of chances and the low share of goalless matches for the hosts (FTS 14% vs 38%), so I give Yunnan a slight edge and forecast them to win.

I back BTTS - Yes and assess its probability at 75%. Key signal is the home form in the last 5 matches: BTTS 80%, averaging 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, indicating frequent goal exchanges. Visitors in their last 5 have BTTS 60%, score on average 1.4 goals, and their season BTTS is 63% with only 13% clean sheets, which further increases the likelihood they will score. xG and shots analysis shows the home side have xG 1.57 versus the visitors' defensive xG against of 1.41 and average 14 shots (4.25 on target), while the visitors average 8.5 shots (3.0 on target) and a higher conversion rate of 12%, so both sides create real chances. Considering recent form, the league BTTS level of 63% and the low percentage of visitors' clean sheets, the Both Teams To Score scenario looks stronger than a No Goal outcome.

Average xG indicates a combined scoring potential of about 2.55. Home side has an attacking xG of 1.57 while Henan’s defensive xG against them is 1.41 — averaging these yields roughly 1.49 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun. Visitors have an attacking xG of 1.05 versus the home xG conceded of 1.06, so Henan Jianye’s expected goals are about 1.06 (sum ≈2.55). Seasonally both teams have 75% of matches with over 1.5 goals, the league average is 3.05 goals per match, and the last 5 matches for both teams show 60% of games over 2.5, hence Over 1.5 (80%) and Over 2.5 (62%) are justified. I assess Over 3.5 low at 12% (seasonal Over 3.5: home 13%, away 0%), therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

I forecast the home team to lead at the break because in the last 5 matches the home side have averaged 1.2 first-half goals (13 goals in 5 matches) versus 0.4 for the visitors; homes also produce higher xG (1.57 vs 1.05), more shots (14 vs 8.5) and more shots on target (4.25 vs 3.0). However, after the break I expect a turnaround in favor of Henan: the visitors are in better form (60% wins in their last 5 matches versus 20% for the hosts) and in the second halves of their last 5 games they have averaged 1.6 goals (vs 1.2 for the hosts), with 100% of matches featuring at least 0.5 goals after the interval. Additionally, the visitors are more efficient at finishing chances (conversion rate 12% vs 8%), and the season-long both-teams-to-score indicator shows fixtures involving the visitors are more likely to feature goals at both ends (BTTS 63% vs 38%), which supports a comeback. Therefore the most likely scenario is the home team leading at half-time and the visitors winning after 90 minutes (1/2). As alternatives I assign significant probability to a half-time draw with an away win (X/2) and to the home team maintaining the lead (1/1).