Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Youth Island: match statistics

I predict a Yunnan Yukun win (1) — the hosts have scored 24 goals this season and average 2.00 goals per home match, while Qingdao have 12 goals this season and average 1.00 on the road. Yunnan generates more quality chances: 15.17 average shots and 5.17 shots on target per home match versus 10.14 and 2.57 for the visitors, and a conversion rate of 13% vs 10% confirms higher finishing efficiency for the hosts. Defensively the hosts concede 1.5 goals per home match with average xG against of 1.21, whereas Qingdao concede 2.14 goals on the road with xG against 1.76; the hosts also have 33% clean sheets compared to 14% for their opponents. The last 5 matches show 1.6 points per game for Yunnan (record 2–2–1) and 1.4 for Qingdao (1–4–0) with as many as 4 draws involving the away side, which increases the chance of a split result, but shot metrics, xG and possession (53% vs 42%) favour the hosts. Considering the lower share of matches in which the hosts fail to score (17% vs 29%), and a positive home goal difference (+3 vs -8 for the visitors), I estimate the probabilities as: home win 62%, draw 25%, away win 13%.

Statistical analysis indicates a strong signal for BTTS - Yes: seasonal BTTS rates are 67% (Yunnan Yukun) and 71% (Qingdao Youth Island), with a league BTTS level of 63%. In the last 5 matches Qingdao has BTTS at 100% and Yunnan 60%, showing that especially the visitors consistently both score and concede. Qingdao’s defense is weaker numerically — conceding on average 2.14 goals per match and posting xG against of 1.79 in the last 5 games — while the home side concedes 0.67 goals seasonally with xG against 1.36; at the same time visitors and hosts create xG of 1.09 and 1.25 respectively, so goal-scoring opportunities will arise at both ends. Clean sheets are rare for Qingdao (14% season) and moderate for Yunnan (33%), and in the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 and conceded 6; note that the hosts have 0% of matches over 2.5 goals this season while the visitors have 43%, suggesting most BTTS outcomes will be low-scoring (e.g. 1-1). Considering the 67%/71% seasonal BTTS, the visitors’ 100% last-5 rate and the weaker defense with Qingdao conceding 2.14 on average, I back BTTS - Yes with a probability of 82% versus 18% for No.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.34 (xG 1.25 for Yunnan Yukun vs 1.09 for Qingdao Youth Island), which places the match clearly above the 1.5 threshold but close to the 2.5 line. Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 67% for Yunnan and 86% for Qingdao, and both teams have high BTTS rates of 67% and 71%, increasing the likelihood of at least 2 goals (I estimate Over 1.5 at 80%). However, at the 2.5 line the data diverge: Yunnan has 0% of season matches over 2.5, Qingdao 43%, and the combined xG of 2.34 implies Over 2.5 is only marginal — I assign Over 2.5 45% vs Under 55%. Over 3.5 is unlikely given the 2.34 combined xG and seasonal Over3.5 rates of 0%/43%, therefore I rate Under 3.5 at 82%. Based on this, the best and strongest signal is backing Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). The home team drew at the break in 67% of matches (4 of 6) and finished matches level in 83% of cases; they average 0.50 goals scored and concede only 0.17 in the first half, which supports a low-goal environment and maintenance of a draw. xG does not indicate a clear advantage — home xG is 1.25 versus 1.09 for the visitors, while the visitors concede 2.14 goals per match on average with an xG against of 1.76, but in their last five games the visitors drew as much as 80% of the time, so decisive outcomes are rare. Due to the dominant draw trend (HT draw 67% and FT draw 83%) I assign X/X a 49% probability, with lower chances for 1/1 (20%) and X/1 (10%); scenarios where the visitors lead at the break are assessed collectively at around 7%.