Yverdon Sport vs Vaduz: match statistics

The match looks balanced with a slight edge to the hosts — Yverdon win 64% of their home games and score on average 1.93 goals per match at home with 5.07 shots on target. Vaduz are league leaders with 21 wins this season versus Yverdon’s 16 and only 3 losses (vs 8), and in the last 5 matches they have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game; Yverdon in their last five have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (average 1.4 points per game), with goals 10 for Yverdon vs 8 for Vaduz and goals conceded 7 vs 6. Chance-creation metrics are almost identical: xG for both teams is 1.49, average shots home/away are 13.21 vs 12.00, and shots on target 5.07 vs 4.79; the hosts have a higher shot conversion (15% vs 13%). Defensively both sides concede on average 1.07 goals in home/away matches, but Vaduz have conceded fewer goals overall this season (31 vs 37), while Yverdon keep a clean sheet in 50% of home matches and are less likely to finish without scoring (14% of matches without a goal vs 21% for Vaduz). Taking into account the 64% home win rate, better conversion and similar xG, but also Vaduz’s strong form and overall record, I predict a narrow victory for the hosts.

I back BTTS - Yes at approximately 70%. Yverdon has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus Vaduz’s 43%, with a league average of 54% and 60% in the last 5 matches for both sides. The home side averages 2.6 goals per game with xG 1.84 and 6.47 shots on target, while the visitors average 1.57 goals with xG 1.49 and 4.79 shots on target, indicating both teams create chances. Yverdon have 0% matches without scoring this season, Vaduz 21% (so the away side scores in 79% of matches), and clean sheets occur in 33% and 43% of games respectively—insufficient to neutralize the offensive advantage. Considering the higher home goals average (2.6 vs 1.57), solid xG for both sides (1.84 and 1.49) and a league BTTS tendency of 54%, the both-teams-to-score scenario looks strongest.

Yverdon averages 2.6 goals scored per match, Vaduz 1.57, and both teams concede 1.07 on average, suggesting an open, offensive fixture. xG data show a similar trend: xG Yverdon 1.84 vs xG Vaduz 1.49, with xG against 1.23 (Yverdon) and 1.34 (Vaduz), yielding expected goals of 1.59 for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors, totaling 2.95. A Poisson model on a 2.95 mean gives roughly a 79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, 57% for Over 2.5 and 34% for Over 3.5; additionally, seasonal rates show Yverdon has Over 2.5 in 80% of matches while Vaduz in 29%, reinforcing the home-side edge on overs. In the last 5 matches Yverdon scored 10 goals, Vaduz 8, and both teams have 60% Over 2.5 in their last 5 games, confirming a tendency toward higher goal counts. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (high Over 1.5 rates: 80% home, 71% away and expected 2.95 goals), therefore I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line.

Statistics clearly favor the home side: Yverdon scores an average of 2.6 goals per match versus Vaduz’s 1.57 and wins at home in 93% of games, leading at the break in 9 cases (60%). By half-time Yverdon averages 1.4 goals HT, while Vaduz only 0.43 HT and concedes an average of 0.64 goals before the break, which strongly supports a lead for the hosts after 45 minutes. Looking at the Full-Time perspective, the offensive numbers confirm the advantage: home xG 1.84 versus 1.49 for the visitors, 6.47 shots on target vs 4.79 and conversion 17% vs 13%, so maintaining the lead until the end is more likely. Additionally Yverdon have 27 first-half goals compared to 15 for Vaduz and season scoring averages of 2.6 vs 1.57, therefore the 1/1 (lead at the break and Full-Time victory for the home team) scenario receives the highest probability.