Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Bełchatów: match statistics

Ząbkovia Ząbki demonstrates impressive efficiency at home with a 67% home win rate and an average of 2.67 goals per match, supported by a 15% conversion rate and dominant possession (52%), providing a solid foundation for victory. Bełchatów performs significantly worse in away matches, conceding an average of 2.09 goals per game with only a 27% win rate and a zero clean sheet percentage. However, the concerning recent form of the hosts, who have lost all of their last five matches, may affect the team's confidence. The xG advantage (2.11 vs 1.14) and goal difference (+15 vs -9) in home matches favor the hosts, but the poor run could make the match more balanced than the seasonal statistics suggest. Considering all factors, Ząbkovia should leverage the home advantage and end their losing streak, although Bełchatów has shown signs of improvement in their last two matches.

Seasonal data strongly supports BTTS - Yes: Ząbkovia boasts a 58% BTTS rate, while Bełchatów reaches a high 73%, coupled with exceptionally high average goals conceded (2.25 for the hosts and 2.09 for the guests). Bełchatów has recorded 0% clean sheets this season, which drastically boosts the likelihood of Ząbkovia scoring (1.92 goals scored per match; xG 1.15, versus Bełchatów's xGA of 1.92). Conversely, Ząbkovia's defense is leaky (40 GA in the season; 2.2 conceded in the last 5), enhancing Bełchatów's chances of finding the net despite their 27% FTS rate. The goals market aligns with this outlook: Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% for Ząbkovia and 73% for Bełchatów, and the league averages a high 3.41 goals per game. Although the last 5 matches for both teams show only 40% BTTS, given such frail defenses and the away team's clean sheet drought, the strongest indicator still points decisively to BTTS "yes".

Seasonal data strongly supports a goals scenario: Over 1.5 has occurred in 83% of Ząbkovia's matches and 91% of Bełchatów's. Both defenses are leaky (Ząbkovia concedes an average of 2.25 goals/match, Bełchatów 2.09), with Bełchatów having 0% clean sheets and 100% of matches with at least 1 goal conceded. Furthermore, the league profile is high-scoring (average 3.41 goals/match, 67% of matches with Over 2.5), which boosts the baseline goal expectations. On the other hand, the last 5 matches lower the peak expectations (Ząbkovia 0.4 goals scored/match, Bełchatów 0.8), so higher lines like 3.5 have lower confidence. The strongest and most stable signal remains Over 1.5, supported by both seasonal frequency and defensive weaknesses.

The strongest signal is the clear difference in form: Ząbkovia is on a 5-match losing streak (PPG 0.0), while Bełchatów has earned 1.4 PPG in their last 5 matches (dllww). Ząbkovia starts matches very poorly recently: in their last5, they have averaged 0.0 goals scored by half-time and in as many as 80% of cases when they trail at the break, which increases the likelihood of a 2/2 scenario. Over the course of the season, both defenses are leaky (Ząbkovia 2.25 goals conceded per match, Bełchatów 2.09), and Bełchatów has not kept a single clean sheet (0%), so the visitors' lead may hold despite expected scoring chances for both sides. High BTTS rates (58% vs 73%) and the hosts' high second-half goal productivity (AVG_2hg 2.5; 92% over 0.5) suggest an open match, but given Ząbkovia's poor recent scoring efficiency (0.4 goals per match), Bełchatów is more likely to control the scoreline. Therefore, the most probable outcome is the visitors leading at the break and winning the match overall (2/2), with the alternative being a draw at half-time and a Bełchatów win (X/2).