Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki: match statistics

Wigry Suwałki have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, collecting 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, while Ząbkovia have managed just 4 points. The visitors have also been significantly more solid defensively over the course of the season, conceding only 1 goal in 3 matches, compared with 8 conceded by the hosts. In their last five appearances, Ząbkovia have allowed opponents to score 12 goals, while scoring 6 themselves, highlighting a serious defensive balance problem. During the same period, Wigry scored 8 goals and average 7 shots per away match, 3 of them on target, so they should create enough chances against such a vulnerable defence. Ząbkovia’s home advantage and their only home win increase the likelihood of a draw, but the current form trend and season-long defensive efficiency favour the visitors.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by current form, as both teams have recorded this scenario in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Ząbkovia conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, while Wigry scored 1.6, giving the visitors a realistic chance of finding the net. The hosts have recently created chances worth 1.62 xG, while Wigry’s defence allowed opponents 1.52 xG, making a Ząbkovia goal likely as well. The seasonal average of 1.5 goals scored by the hosts and 1.0 goals conceded by Wigry further strengthens the Goal/Goal scenario. A note of caution is Ząbkovia’s 100% clean-sheet rate in the seasonal data, but their weaker defence across the last five matches significantly reduces the importance of this indicator.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: Ząbkovia average 1.15 xG at home, while Wigry allow as much as 1.98 xG away, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. However, the visitors generate only 0.99 xG per away match, and Ząbkovia’s defense allows opponents just 0.70 xG, so their projected goal tally remains below 1.00. In the teams’ previous matches under these conditions, there have been no instances of more than 2.5 goals, and every game also finished below 3.5 goals. Ząbkovia’s last five matches were more open, averaging 3.6 goals with 80% finishing Over 2.5, but Wigry conceded only 1.0 goal per match during this period. The Under 3.5 line offers the strongest edge, as the expected total of 2.35 goals leaves a solid margin even if the hosts produce a stronger attacking performance.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Wigry win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their last five matches and did not trail at the break in any of those games. Wigry are also in significantly better current form: they won 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals, while Ząbkovia lost 60% of their fixtures and conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game. After half-time, the hosts allowed their opponents to score an average of 1.6 goals, which supports a second-half turnaround in favour of the visitors. Ząbkovia’s home advantage, where they won one match and kept one clean sheet in the available sample, reduces confidence in the selection, although an xG against Wigry of 1.98 indicates defensive vulnerability.