Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wisła Płock II: match statistics

Ząbkovia Ząbki have scored 59 goals this season and average 2.54 goals per home match, but in the last 5 games they have managed only 2 goals and lost all 5, yielding 0 points in that period. Wisła Płock II have 40 goals this season, score on average 1.75 goals away and have netted 8 goals in their last 5 matches, with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and an average of 2 points per game. Hosts create more chances: home xG 2.1 vs away xG 1.46, 16.33 shots and 7.67 on target at home vs 10.82 and 5.27 for the visitors, indicating a clear edge in chance creation. Nevertheless Ząbkovia’s defence looks poor in the short term — they conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game) vs 9 conceded by Wisła (1.8 per game), and the visitors are more efficient (conversion rate 16% vs 14%) with 0% of matches without scoring compared to 15% for the hosts. As a result I favour Wisła Płock II based on form and finishing in the last 5 games; forecast 45% for an away win, 30% for the home side and 25% for a draw.

I predict BTTS - Yes — seasonal BTTS rates are 75% for Ząbkovia and 92% for Wisła Płock II, versus a league average of 64%, strongly favoring both teams to score. Ząbkovia kept a clean sheet in 17% of home matches (conceded in 83%), and Wisła II only in 8% of away games (conceded in 92%), so both teams rarely remain without conceding. Seasonal goals averages are 1.58 for Ząbkovia and 1.75 for Wisła II; xG is 1.53 vs 1.46, and xG against is 1.61 vs 1.59, with 4.75 and 5.27 shots on target respectively, showing chances created and conceded by both sides. The only notable caveat is Ząbkovia’s weaker form in the last 5 matches — just 0.4 goals per game and BTTS 40%, while Wisła II over the same period averaged 1.6 goals per game and BTTS 80% — however this does not outweigh the strong seasonal trends. Considering 75% vs 92% seasonal BTTS, 0% of matches without a Wisła goal, low clean sheet rates (17% and 8%) and favorable xG/shots metrics, I assess BTTS probability at 85% vs 15% for No Goal.

The xG model projects Ząbkovia at around 1.56 goals (attacking xG 1.53 vs average xG conceded to away teams 1.59) and Wisła Płock II at about 1.54 goals (attacking xG 1.46 vs average xG conceded to home teams 1.61), totalling ~3.10 expected goals. Seasonally, Over 2.5 goals occurs in 75% of hosts’ matches and 83% of away matches, while BTTS appears in 75% and 92% of fixtures, strongly favoring goals from both sides. In the last 5 games Ząbkovia scored 2 and conceded 14 (avg 0.4 and 2.8), whereas Wisła scored 8 and conceded 9 (1.6 and 1.8), indicating home vulnerability and away attacking productivity. Additionally both teams average 10.5 and 10.82 shots with conversion rates of 15% and 16%, and the league averages 3.41 goals per game, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5 (I estimate ~72%).

The most likely scenario is that Wisła Płock II will have the lead at the break and the visitors will win after 90 minutes (2/2). The away side led at half-time in 6 matches (50%) compared to only 1 half-time lead for the hosts (9%), and the visitors’ average points at the break are 1.83 versus 0.91 for the hosts, which strongly favors the away team for the first 45 minutes. Recent form over the last 5 matches also supports Wisła Płock II — the hosts have lost all 5 (lllll, 0.0 points), while the visitors are wwdwl with an average of 2.0 points, indicating a clear advantage. xG are similar (1.53 for the hosts vs 1.46 for the visitors), but the visitors are more efficient by half-time (on average 0.83 scored and 0.58 conceded at the break vs 0.64 scored and 0.91 conceded for the hosts), which increases the chance of maintaining the lead. Seasonally the hosts have strong second-half statistics (average 2.0 points in the second half and 64% wins in the 2nd half), therefore I also assign a meaningful share to X/2 and X/X scenarios.