Zakynthos vs Apollon Pontou: match statistics

Apollon Pontou hold a slight edge thanks to a more solid defence: they have conceded 5 goals in their last five matches, compared with 13 for Zakynthos. The hosts have failed to win any of those five games, recording one draw and four defeats, while the visitors have won once in that period. However, the visitors’ away record tempers the forecast of an away win: they are yet to win on the road and have failed to score in 67% of such matches. Zakynthos create slightly better chances at home, with an average xG of 1.20 compared with Apollon’s 1.06 away from home, but concede an average of 4 goals per match on home soil. An away win is therefore the most likely outcome, although the visitors’ poor finishing leaves a significant chance of a draw.

The strongest signal points to Apollon Pontou failing to score: they have been shut out in 67% of their away matches, while Zakynthos have kept a clean sheet in every home match so far. The visitors average 0.67 goals and 2.5 shots on target away from home, making their attacking output more modest than the hosts’, who average 1.0 goal and 3.0 shots on target at home. Some caution is warranted, given that Zakynthos have conceded an average of 2.6 goals across their last five matches, while their opponents’ home xG stands at 1.89. Even so, both teams have scored just 3 goals apiece in their last five games, and each side has scored in 41% of league matches, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

Zakynthos average 1.0 goals at home, while Apollon Pontou score 0.67 goals away, limiting both teams’ scoring potential. In their last 5 matches, each side averaged just 0.6 goals, although Zakynthos conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game over that period. This cautionary signal should be weighed against the league average of 2.16 goals and the fact that 100% of Zakynthos’ home results so far have stayed Under 3.5 goals, as have 67% of Apollon’s away matches. With a forecast of 2.25 total goals, Under 3.5 offers a greater safety margin than Under 2.5, particularly given the hosts’ recent defensive struggles.

A draw at half-time and full-time is the most likely outcome, although the data for Zakynthos at home covers only one match. In their last five matches, the hosts were level at the break three times and failed to score in the first half, while Apollon were level at half-time twice. Both teams have averaged just 0.6 goals per match recently, limiting the likelihood of either side establishing a clear advantage. The case for the score remaining level is also supported by the fact that Apollon failed to score after the break in four of their last five matches and drew the second half four times during that period. Zakynthos’ 1–0 win in the only home match included in the data favours the hosts, but their four defeats in the last five matches mean this indication should be treated with caution.