Zamalek vs Abu Qair Semad: match statistics

Zamalek are showing clearly superior form: they remain unbeaten in the league (2 wins and 1 draw), while their record in the last five matches stands at 4 wins and 1 draw. During this period, the hosts scored 7 goals and conceded just 1, whereas Abu Qair Semad have lost 2 of their last 5 matches and sit 13th, compared with Zamalek’s 3rd-place position. Away from home, the visitors are yet to score, have lost 100% of their matches, average just 2 shots and 0 shots on target per game, and post an average xG of only 0.32. Zamalek average 56% possession at home and create chances worth 1.29 xG, while their opponents allow 1.62 xG and concede an average of 2 goals away from home. The hosts’ lower attacking efficiency, having failed to score in 50% of their home matches, leaves some room for a draw; however, the quality gap and Abu Qair Semad’s defensive limitations clearly point towards a Zamalek victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the seasonal share of matches in which both teams scored is 0% for both Zamalek and Abu Qair Semad, compared with 33% across the league. The visitors have yet to score in the competition, average only 2.0 shots per match and have not recorded a single shot on target, while their average xG is just 0.32. Zamalek have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season and have conceded only 1 goal in their last five games, averaging 0.2 per match. The hosts are in better form, averaging 1.4 goals scored across their last five appearances, which supports a one-sided scoring outcome but does not significantly increase the chances of the visitors finding the net. Even with Abu Qair Semad improving offensively to an average of 1.0 goal over their last five matches, their 0% BTTS rate during this period still clearly supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The match profile clearly points to a low-scoring outcome: both Zamalek’s and Abu Qair Semad’s matches have finished with Under 2.5 goals in 100% of cases so far. In their last five appearances, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded just 0.2, while the visitors scored 1.0 goal, with matches involving both sides producing only 4 goals conceded across five games. Abu Qair Semad have failed to score in their matches so far in this matchup, averaging 2.0 shots and not a single shot on target, which limits the projection for the visitors to 0.57 goals. The league averages just 1.97 goals per match, and only 30% of games go Over 2.5, making Under 3.5 goals the most convincing option.

Zamalek are in clearly better form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored, conceded just 0.2, and won 80% of their games, while Abu Qair Semad have lost 40% of theirs. The hosts were leading at the break in 3 of their last 5 appearances and were not behind in any of them after 45 minutes, while the visitors averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time. Zamalek’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 0.97 compared with just 0.32 for their opponents, who averaged fewer than one shot on target. Abu Qair Semad nevertheless remain capable of keeping the game open early on, having drawn at half-time in 60% of their recent matches; therefore, the half-time draw/full-time home win option is a strong alternative. The strongest scenario, however, remains Zamalek leading at the break and holding on to secure victory, supported by the hosts keeping a clean sheet in the first half in 100% of their last 5 matches.