Zamora vs Caracas: match statistics

I predict a draw. Zamora and Caracas both have 12 goals this season; Zamora scores 1.2 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.37, while Caracas averages 0.8 goals away with xG 1.33. Caracas generates more shots on target (4.4 vs 3.8) and slightly more attempts (13 vs 12.8), but their conversion rate on the road is lower (6% vs 9%), which limits their actual goal threat. Both teams concede 1.2 goals per match on average, and Caracas has yet to win away (0% wins and 80% draws), which increases the likelihood of a shared point; additionally, in the last 5 matches Zamora scored 6 goals (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), and Caracas 5 goals (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Based on this I assess the probabilities at roughly 30% for a home win, 45% for a draw and 25% for an away win.

Both teams show high BTTS rates: Zamora 67% and Caracas 60%, averaging 63.5% versus the league BTTS average of 50%. The probability of a clean sheet is low — Zamora keep one in 17% of matches, Caracas in 20% — with average goals conceded 1.5 (Zamora) and 1.2 (Caracas), so both sides regularly concede. Offensively Zamora posts xG 1.52 and an average of 14.33 shots with a conversion rate of 9%, Caracas has xG 1.33 and 13.0 shots with a 6% conversion; meanwhile xG against are 1.61 vs 1.21, and shots on target are 4.5 vs 4.4, which confirms both teams create scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Zamora scored 6 and conceded 5 (BTTS 40%), and Caracas scored 5 and conceded 5 (BTTS 60%), so current form also favors goal exchange. Considering the seasonal BTTS ~63.5%, low clean sheet percentages 17–20% and the cited xG and shot data, I assign a 70% probability to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No — recommendation: Yes.

Based on xG: Zamora’s xG is 1.52 vs opponents’ xG conceded 1.21, implying ~1.37 goals for the home side; Caracas’ xG is 1.33 vs opponents’ conceded 1.61, implying ~1.47 goals for the visitors, totaling ~2.84 goals. Season rates show Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of Zamora’s matches and 80% of Caracas’s, while Over 0.5 occurred in 100% and 80% respectively, which strongly supports the Over 1.5 scenario. Average shots on target are 4.5 (Zamora) and 4.4 (Caracas) with conversion rates of 9% vs 6%, and BTTS rates of 67% and 60%, increasing the probability of at least two goals. At the 2.5 line, expected goals of 2.84 and seasonal Over 2.5 rates of 50% (Zamora) vs 20% (Caracas) give a moderate edge to the Over (estimated 58%), whereas the 3.5 line is unlikely (seasonal 33% and 20%), so I assess Over 3.5 at 22%. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is backing Over 1.5 (estimated 88%), since both teams have high shares for Over 0.5 and 1.5 and combined expected xG ≈2.84, forming a coherent and dominant argument for that line.

Statistics indicate a high number of draws: Caracas draws in 80% of matches, and the half-time draw rates are 50% for Zamora and 60% for Caracas, yielding approximately a 55% chance of a draw at the break. Zamora scores on average 1.33 goals per match versus 0.8 for Caracas, but half-time typical values are only 0.5 (Zamora) vs 0.2 (Caracas), so the first half often does not decide the outcome. This is also confirmed by xG: Zamora has an xG of 1.52 versus 1.33 for the visitors, but simultaneously concedes an xG against of 1.61 versus 1.21, meaning the offensive advantage is partially offset by weaker defense. In Zamora’s matches both teams scored in 67% of games, and in Caracas’s matches in 60%, which increases the likelihood of a scoring draw rather than a goalless 0:0. As a result I assign the highest probability to the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw/draw (X/X) at 33%, with the next significant options being draw→home win at 11% and draw→away win at 11%.