Zarzis vs Olympique Béja: match statistics

I predict a draw (X): both teams struggle to score — Zarzis averages 0.58 goals per home match, while Olympique Béja averages only 0.42 on the road. Zarzis, however, has a clear advantage in quality of chances and game control: home xG 1.27 vs 0.76 for Béja, possession 58% vs 39%, more shots 9.67 vs 5 and more shots on target 3.44 vs 2.83. The hosts’ problem is low finishing (conversion 5%) and recent form without wins — last 5: 0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 3 scored and 4 conceded; the visitors’ last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, 5 scored and 4 conceded. Defensively Zarzis looks better: they concede 0.92 goals at home on average vs Béja’s 1.42 conceded away, and average xG against 0.91 vs 1.87; clean sheet rate for hosts is 42% vs 17% for guests. Considering the higher xG and better defensive profile of the hosts, but their lack of finishing and draw-prone trend, I assess the probabilities as: home 35%, draw 45%, away 20%.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are low: Zarzis has BTTS at 23% at home, Olympique Béja 17% away, and the league average is 27%, indicating Both Teams To Score is uncommon. Both teams look weak offensively — goals per game are 0.69 for Zarzis and 0.42 for Béja, with conceded averages of 1.46 and 1.42; hosts average 7.42 shots (3.0 on target) and visitors 5.0 shots (2.83 on target) with conversion rates of 10% and 8%, which limits clear goalscoring opportunities. xG confirms this picture: xG for the hosts is 0.99 versus 0.76 for the guests, while xG against is 1.27 and 1.87, so the visitors have particularly low expected goals and a higher likelihood of conceding. Although BTTS in the last 5 matches was 40% for Zarzis and 60% for Béja, this is a small sample compared to seasonal values of 23%/17%; additionally the hosts have 38% clean sheets, which strengthens the No Goal scenario. Considering these figures, I assess the probability of BTTS at 25% for Yes and 75% for No; my top pick is No.

The xG-based model (Zarzis attack xG 0.99 vs xG conceded to Olympique Béja 1.87; Béja attack xG 0.76 vs xG conceded to Zarzis 1.27) yields expected goals of 1.43 for the home side and 1.02 for the visitors, totaling 2.45 goals. From this total there is roughly a 70% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 44% for Over 2.5, and only around 23% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates confirm a moderate scoring profile: Zarzis have 46% of matches Over 2.5, Béja 25%, and fixtures with at least 4 goals are rare (23% and 8%). Additionally, Zarzis average 7.42 shots (3.0 on target) with a 10% conversion, Béja 5.0 shots (2.83 on target) with an 8% conversion — there are quality chances but not a dominant influx of goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5 (implied probability ~77%), driven by the expected 2.45 goals and the low frequency of matches with ≥4 strikes.

Zarzis holds the offensive edge: the home side’s average xG is 0.99 versus Olympique Béja’s 0.76, and 7.42 shots per game compared to 5.0, which increases the likelihood of a goal before the break. The visitors concede an average of 1.00 goals by half-time and have led at the break in only 8% of matches (1), whereas Zarzis led at the break in 23% of fixtures (3), so HT/FT favors the home side. Over 90 minutes Zarzis averages 1.15 points at home and scores 0.69 goals per match, while Olympique has 0.58 points away and 0.42 goals on average; the away xG against is 1.87, which raises the probability that Zarzis will maintain a lead. The league is low-scoring (1.73 goals per game on average and 91% of matches see a clean sheet), and both teams rarely score in the same game (both-teams-to-score percentages: 23% and 17%), so I assign the highest probability to 1/1, with a moderate chance for X/1 and X/X as alternatives.